Anaheim Ducks
5-on-5 · model-estimatedDucks: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (3 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (76% kill rate).
PDO 0.981 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Team finishing is -20 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Lukas Dostal sv% 88.8% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Leo Carlsson
- Cutter Gauthier
- Beckett Sennecke
- John Carlson
- Jackson LaCombe
- Troy Terry
- Mikael Granlund
- Olen Zellweger
- Ian Moore
- Radko Gudas
- Chris Kreider
- Mason McTavish
- Alex Killorn
- Jacob Trouba
- Pavel Mintyukov
- Nikita Nesterenko
- Jeffrey Viel
- Ryan Poehling
- Jansen Harkins
- Ross Johnston
- Tim Washe
- Frank Vatrano
- Drew Helleson
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 56 | 88.830 | — | +0.0 |
| Ville Husso | 20 | 88.390 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo CarlssonC | 70 | 14.0 | +80.70 | +3.5 |
| Cutter GauthierL | 76 | 13.4 | +76.50 | +3.5 |
| Beckett SenneckeR | 82 | 14.3 | +74.20 | +2.9 |
| John CarlsonD | 71 | 17.1 | +73.10 | +2.8 |
| Jackson LaCombeD | 82 | 18.4 | +72.40 | +2.7 |
| Troy TerryR | 61 | 13.6 | +72.80 | +2.6 |
| Chris KreiderL | 75 | 12.7 | +59.10 | +2.1 |
| Mikael GranlundC | 58 | 13.4 | +61.60 | +1.8 |
| Mason McTavishC | 75 | 12.6 | +57.30 | +1.6 |
| Alex KillornL | 82 | 12.6 | +46.50 | +1.2 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 7th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 36 even.
6 games in 11 days with 6,212 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 22
6 games in 10 days with 4,094 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,438 travel miles
Nov 14 – Nov 23