WARNINGANA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.57 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Anaheim Ducks
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Ducksactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): ANA 5 - 4 VAN — a win over the Canucks.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.57 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
98
Games filed
51
Wins (all)
47
Losses (all)
331
Goals for
353
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · ANA @ VAN · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionANAVAN
Offense
▸Basis
ANA Created 2.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.19 xG).
VAN Created 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.19 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.57 xG).
B
83
B+
87
Defense
▸Basis
ANA Allowed 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.19 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.57 xG).
VAN Allowed 2.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.19 xG).
D
63
D+
67
Transition
▸Basis
ANA Rush shots 25–22, rush xG 2.19–2.57 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
VAN Rush shots 22–25, rush xG 2.57–2.19 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
73
C+
77
Special teams
▸Basis
ANA 3-for-3 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 0.52 PP xG.
VAN 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.61 PP xG.
A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
ANA -0.90 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
VAN -2.06 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
D
66
F
54
Discipline
▸Basis
ANA Took 10 penalties for 43 PIM vs 9 for 41 on the other side.
VAN Took 9 penalties for 41 PIM vs 10 for 43 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
ANA Finishing +2.06 goals vs xG plus -0.90 GSAx of save luck = +1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
VAN Finishing +0.90 goals vs xG plus -2.06 GSAx of save luck = -1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
84
D
66
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHANA
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.19 xG.
STRENGTHANA
Power play cashed in
3-for-3 on the power play (100%) on 0.52 PP xG.
LUCKANA
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 5 on 2.94 xG — +2.06 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
STRENGTHANA
B. Sennecke led the way
4A in 21:17 — the game's first star.
Warning signs
WARNINGANA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.57 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGANA
L. Brossoit was beaten from the slot
L. Brossoit stopped only 60% of 5 high-danger shots (2 goals against from the inner slot).
WARNINGANA
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 10 penalties for 43 minutes (opponent: 9 for 41).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHANA
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.19 xG.
STRENGTHANA
Power play cashed in
3-for-3 on the power play (100%) on 0.52 PP xG.
STRENGTHANA
B. Sennecke led the way
4A in 21:17 — the game's first star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseBavg 95▼ DECLINING
DefenseDavg 48▲ IMPROVING
TransitionCavg 78▼ DECLINING
Special teamsA+avg 98→ FLAT
GoaltendingDavg 67→ FLAT
DisciplineC-avg 62▲ IMPROVING
LuckBavg 78▲ IMPROVING
ANA latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
81/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 7th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
45,118
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
16
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,198 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d49
2d18
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 36 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 6,212 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 22
6 games in 10 days with 4,094 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,438 travel miles
Nov 14 – Nov 23
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm