WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -14.1 GSAx over 8 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · ANA at VAN
Ducks at Canucks: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model gives Anaheim the edge, but it is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The scoreboard and the underlying play point in different directions, and that split is the story.
Vancouver comes in with a -18 goal differential over its last 10 games. Anaheim is underwater too, at -7 over the same stretch, but its hole is much shallower.
The Ducks own the underlying play, and the table below carries the season 5v5 numbers behind it. Anaheim leads on expected-goals share and on shot attempts, so expect territorial tilt toward them.
| Metric | ANA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 47.2% | 38.8% |
| Corsi% | 47.4% | 42.8% |
| PDO | 0.987 | 0.995 |
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season. His -14.1 goals saved above expected over 8 games is the number that stands out.
The goalie comparison is thin on one side. L. Brossoit has played one game, with a save percentage of 87.0%. L. Meriläinen has played 11, with a save percentage of 89.7% and goals saved above expected at +0.0.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
ANA 55%
55%
ANA
Model favorite
55%
45%
ANA50VAN
ANA by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 3.5–3.2 VAN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →VAN
47.2%38.8%
47.4%42.8%
3.152.43
3.523.83
3.502.94
3.794.50
0.9870.995
ANA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.987 vs 0.995) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
ANA
3-6-1
-7 GD · 1d rest
VAN
1-8-1
-18 GD · 2d rest
0.987
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.995
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Ducks own the underlying play
The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.2% 5v5 xG vs 38.8%.
TACTICAL
The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.4%
The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.4% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 45%–55% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.2% 5v5 xG vs 38.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.2% 5v5 xG vs 38.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Brossoit (-0.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 87.0% SV) vs L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 11 GP, 89.7% SV).
- The Canucks are underwater at -18 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Ducks are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
ANA
vs OTT · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
L. Brossoit
1 day rest.870 last start60:00 played
Backup Lukas Dostal · -3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo10:27
- N. Nesterenko09:35
- A. Killorn16:32
- A. Greer10:30
- J. Caulfield13:21
- J. Malott08:30
- T. Washe16:13
- B. Sennecke20:53
- C. Gauthier19:02
- M. Granlund20:04
- L. Carlsson20:40
- R. McQueen11:46
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe28:04
- D. Helleson21:59
- T. Mitchell09:29
- N. Warren11:16
- T. Luneau20:12
- P. Mintyukov21:27
VAN
vs TOR · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
2 days rest.889 last start58:13 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -14.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser19:45
- B. Gallagher10:10
- D. O'Connor14:25
- M. Rossi17:04
- E. Pettersson21:09
- P. Cotter14:39
- J. Quillan11:58
- M. Sasson12:02
- J. DeBrusk17:26
- J. Lekkerimäki19:00
- L. Ohgren13:38
- L. Karlsson14:56
Defence · 6
- L. Schenn10:19
- J. Oleksiak11:31
- T. Willander19:13
- Z. Buium22:49
- F. Hronek26:57
- E. Pettersson20:46
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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