TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
Preview · CAR at NSH
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Predators — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Carolina is the model's pick, and the case rests on how these teams have played rather than on how their results look. The Hurricanes have controlled the territory and the chances, while the Predators have gotten less from their play than it deserves.
Start with five-on-five, the cleanest test of who controls a game. Carolina has won the expected goals battle, taking 62.8% of it. Nashville sits under half, at 48.6%. The Hurricanes also take 58.6% of all shot attempts, so expect the territorial tilt to show up on the scoresheet. The Predators' 45.7% share of shot attempts shows the same gap from the other side.
The Predators' problem looks more like luck than process. Their combined shooting and save percentage is 0.978, which means they are running cold and are due for positive regression. Carolina's sits at 1.022, running hot, and should give some of that back.
Form points the same way. Carolina has gone 8-1-1 over its last 10 games and is the hotter team by points pace. Nashville is -6 in goal differential over that stretch, which leaves it underwater.
In goal, P. Kochetkov has the edge. He has saved 7.2 more goals than the shots he faced should have allowed across 10 games. His save percentage is 92.9%. J. Annunen has allowed 2.3 more goals than his shots should have produced across 3 games, and his save percentage is 84.6%. That puts P. Kochetkov 9.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
The model projects the Hurricanes at 3.6 goals to the Predators' 3.0, which gives Carolina a 59% win probability.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 59%
59%
CAR
Model favorite
59%
41%
CAR50NSH
CAR by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CAR 3.6–3.0 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →NSH
62.8%48.6%
58.6%45.7%
4.153.01
2.463.18
3.942.93
2.193.14
1.0220.978
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.022 vs 0.978) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CAR
8-1-1
+20 GD · 1d rest
NSH
3-3-4
-6 GD · 2d rest
1.022
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.978
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.6%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCAR
Regression watch: Hurricanes
The Hurricanes' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+7.2 GSAx in 10 GP, 92.9% SV) vs J. Annunen (-2.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 84.6% SV).
- P. Kochetkov has the GSAx edge — 9.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Predators are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs WPG · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
1 day rest1.000 last start59:58 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho21:16
- L. Stankoven13:26
- S. Jarvis16:16
- N. Ehlers13:22
- W. Carrier12:58
- A. Svechnikov17:34
- N. Deslauriers11:44
- J. Martinook14:03
- E. Robinson14:35
- J. Blake15:01
- M. Jankowski15:46
- J. Kotkaniemi13:31
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere17:23
- J. Chatfield17:43
- J. Välimäki15:39
- K. Miller22:01
- S. Walker21:19
- J. Slavin20:25
NSH
vs TBL · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
J. Annunen
2 days rest.846 last start64:52 played
Backup Juuse Saros · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg20:45
- A. Kerfoot19:12
- J. Drury18:39
- N. Hoglander10:10
- M. Bourque13:43
- R. Schaefer12:02
- M. Wood13:00
- R. Colton13:38
- J. Marchessault15:18
- A. Edstrom17:15
- R. O'Reilly18:02
- S. Stamkos16:18
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby21:32
- J. Struble17:31
- N. Perbix18:02
- D. Hunt16:05
- R. Josi27:33
- B. Skjei20:23
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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