TACTICALNJD
Rest edge
The Devils come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Preview · EDM at NJD
The Devils are the model's lean over the Oilers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Devils, and the reason is how New Jersey plays the puck. Edmonton is the caveat, because the Oilers are running hot and the model expects some of that to fade.
The projected score is EDM 3.0 - 3.3 NJD, and the model gives New Jersey a 55% chance to win. The Devils come in with 3 days of rest, while the Oilers have 0 days.
On the season at five-on-five, the Devils hold 58.5% of the expected goals. Edmonton sits at 52.0%. New Jersey also takes the territorial edge in shot attempts, with 57.6% of them, so expect territorial tilt. Edmonton holds 47.5%.
Edmonton's PDO is 1.042, which is running hot, so expect some regression. New Jersey's PDO is 0.995.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 55%
55%
NJD
Model favorite
45%
55%
EDM50NJD
NJD by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score EDM 3.0–3.3 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →NJD
52.0%58.5%
47.5%57.6%
3.103.59
2.862.55
4.203.43
2.872.86
1.0420.995
NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.042 vs 0.995) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 0–10
EDM
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
NJD
7-3-0
+12 GD · 3d rest
1.042
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.995
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils own the underlying play
The Devils own the underlying play — 58.5% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 57.6%
The Devils drive Corsi at 57.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.042 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 58.5% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 57.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.042 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils own the underlying play — 58.5% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 57.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.042 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs NYR · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
M. Tomkins
59:13 last game
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic09:22
- J. Dickinson11:55
- F. Hallander08:38
- M. Joseph12:04
- A. Formenton12:33
- L. Draisaitl20:08
- C. Dach14:53
- K. Kapanen21:31
- O. Michaels10:11
- V. Podkolzin16:15
- R. Nugent-Hopkins20:13
- C. McDavid23:22
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard25:42
- C. Murphy19:48
- R. Shea21:08
- M. Ekholm21:57
- T. Emberson12:41
- S. Mukhamadullin14:26
NJD
vs VGK · Fri, Oct 30
Expected in goal
C. Hellebuyck
3 days rest.905 last start60:00 played
Backup Jake Allen · -5.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass12:13
- N. Hischier18:12
- C. Brown10:14
- E. Rodrigues16:22
- T. Meier17:27
- A. Mantha13:58
- J. Bratt15:35
- J. Boqvist13:59
- L. Evangelista18:40
- A. Gritsyuk17:48
- J. Hughes17:20
- A. Lombardi11:35
Defence · 6
- D. Hamilton17:54
- J. Kovacevic16:33
- B. Pesce21:52
- L. Hughes23:39
- D. Chisholm15:48
- J. Siegenthaler20:45
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going