WARNINGCOL
M. Blackwood on a back-to-back
M. Blackwood projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · COL at CBJ
Avalanche at Blue Jackets: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Avalanche control more of the underlying play, but their results are running ahead of it. The Blue Jackets have been the weaker side on the scoreboard lately, and the model still sees this as close to even.
The model projects a close finish, 3.3 goals for the Avalanche to 3.0 for the Blue Jackets. That gives Colorado a 55% chance to win, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Start with the goaltending. M. Blackwood is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Rest is the other edge. The Blue Jackets come in on 2 days of rest, while the Avalanche are on 0.
The Avalanche are the hotter side by points pace, going 6-3-1 over their last 10. The Blue Jackets, by contrast, sit at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
The season 5v5 numbers are below.
| Metric | COL | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.5% | 45.4% |
| Corsi% | 52.5% | 48.9% |
| PDO | 1.052 | 0.991 |
Colorado owns the underlying play, and the Avalanche drive Corsi%. The draft expects that to show up as territorial tilt.
The Avalanche's PDO is running hot, and the draft expects some regression.
In goal, M. Blackwood has played 11 games and sits at -0.0 GSAx. His SV is 89.9%.
J. Greaves has played 8 games at -2.5 GSAx. His SV is 88.3%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 55%
55%
COL
Model favorite
55%
45%
COL50CBJ
COL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 3.3–3.0 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →CBJ
53.5%45.4%
52.5%48.9%
3.282.68
2.853.22
4.272.33
3.003.25
1.0520.991
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.052 vs 0.991) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
COL
6-3-1
+9 GD · 0d rest
CBJ
4-6-0
-10 GD · 2d rest
1.052
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.991
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.4%.
TACTICAL
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.5%
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.4%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.4%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-0.0 GSAx in 11 GP, 89.9% SV) vs J. Greaves (-2.5 GSAx in 8 GP, 88.3% SV).
- M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 over their last 10).
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Blue Jackets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs CHI · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
back-to-back.913 last start60:00 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -3.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov08:38
- N. Roy12:22
- B. Nelson17:00
- T. Hughes17:10
- P. Kelly13:28
- L. O'Connor11:15
- N. MacKinnon19:25
- A. Lehkonen19:36
- J. Schwartz15:26
- M. Necas16:28
- N. Kadri15:51
- G. Landeskog14:03
Defence · 6
- D. Toews20:46
- C. Makar23:00
- B. Kulak18:22
- N. Juulsen15:19
- S. Malinski15:46
- B. Burns18:05
CBJ
vs DAL · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
2 days rest.875 last start58:26 played
Backup Cam Talbot · +1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- C. Coyle23:57
- C. Sillinger15:44
- A. Fantilli24:54
- S. Monahan15:20
- M. Olivier12:04
- V. Nichushkin17:26
- D. Heinen11:38
- C. Garland14:14
- M. Knies17:29
- K. Johnson19:18
- R. Lomberg08:40
Defence · 7
- J. Christiansen11:03
- D. Mateychuk21:21
- Z. Werenski28:01
- I. Provorov19:31
- D. Fabbro12:57
- E. Gudbranson04:34
- D. Severson20:50
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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