TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 54.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
Preview · DAL at WSH
Stars at Capitals: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Stars have the better underlying game, and the Capitals have the hotter one. The model projects Dallas 3.3, Washington 3.2, and calls this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
The Stars own the underlying play. At 5v5, their xG% is 54.7%, against 48.9% for Washington. Corsi% agrees, with Dallas at 50.8%.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.021, which means they are running hot, and some regression should be expected.
Win probability splits 48%–52%, with the Stars on the 52% side, so margins decide this one.
In goal, J. Oettinger has +8.1 GSAx in 11 GP, with 92.1% SV. L. Thompson is at +5.2 GSAx in 9 GP, with 89.8% SV.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 52%
52%
DAL
Model favorite
52%
48%
DAL50WSH
DAL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 3.3–3.2 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →WSH
54.7%48.9%
50.8%48.7%
3.093.46
2.553.61
2.643.38
2.143.23
0.9891.021
DAL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 1.021) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
DAL
6-3-1
+3 GD · 2d rest
WSH
6-4-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
0.989
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.021
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 54.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 54.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Oettinger (+8.1 GSAx in 11 GP, 92.1% SV) vs L. Thompson (+5.2 GSAx in 9 GP, 89.8% SV).
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DAL
vs CBJ · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
2 days rest.960 last start60:00 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · -1.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Benn15:45
- C. Blackwell09:18
- D. Perron11:31
- S. Steel18:19
- J. Robertson16:38
- J. Kiviranta09:06
- R. Hintz16:55
- A. Hyry15:23
- J. Hryckowian12:29
- W. Johnston19:48
- T. Seguin15:50
- M. Rantanen18:50
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen26:12
- N. Lundkvist20:29
- L. Bichsel12:55
- E. Lindell23:29
- T. Harley22:49
- T. Myers12:14
WSH
vs MIN · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
1 day rest.852 last start58:52 played
Backup Charlie Lindgren · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin13:08
- R. Leonard12:18
- D. Strome18:28
- A. Protas16:59
- B. Jenner14:59
- J. Kyrou14:56
- J. Sourdif13:04
- T. Wilson18:01
- I. Protas08:44
- A. Beauvillier10:22
- P. Dubois17:22
- A. Tuch18:15
Defence · 6
- M. Roy21:07
- J. Chychrun27:16
- T. Liljegren13:47
- J. St. Ivany15:16
- M. Fehérváry20:27
- C. Hutson19:58
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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