Season snapshot
Last 10 counts OT/SO losses as losses — the schedule feed carries scores only.
The files
One page, every morning: last game's report card, ranked intelligence, warning signs and regression watch.
Model-estimated identity, talent tiers, special teams, regression flags and roster needs — process, result and luck, separated.
Upcoming
We publish a preview for each of these the morning of the game — about eight hours before puck drop, once both clubs' previous games are final. A recap follows the final horn.
Recent results
14 games in, against last season's full year.
What are expected goals?
Goals are rare enough that a few bounces can make a good team look bad for weeks. Expected goalsfix that: every shot is scored by how often that exact look — that spot, that angle, that kind of shot — actually goes in. Add them up and you get what a club's chances were worth.
So the two goals rows say what happened, and the two expected-goals rows say what usually happens from those chances. When a club's real goals sit well below its expected goals, it is normally finishing or goaltending — and both tend to drift back toward normal.
Share rows are a slice of the game: 50% is dead even, and anything past about 52% is a club that genuinely tilts the ice.
Backcheck recaps — NHL play-by-play + our xG model