WARNINGWSH
L. Thompson on a back-to-back
L. Thompson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · WSH at NSH
Capitals at Predators: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a WSH 3.3 - 3.4 NSH game with the Predators at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- L. Thompson on a back-to-back. L. Thompson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- Regression watch: Capitals. The Capitals' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
- A genuine coin flip. Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | WSH | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.6% | 47.8% |
| Corsi% | 47.5% | 45.0% |
| PDO | 1.024 | 0.985 |
Regression Watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: L. Thompson (+5.2 GSAx in 8 GP, 90.3% SV) vs J. Saros (+0.1 GSAx in 9 GP, 90.6% SV).
- L. Thompson has the GSAx edge — 5.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 52%
52%
NSH
Model favorite
48%
52%
WSH50NSH
NSH by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 3.3–3.4 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WSH← edge
edge →NSH
48.6%47.8%
47.5%45.0%
3.432.89
3.623.16
3.552.83
3.093.00
1.0240.985
WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.985) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WSH
6-4-0
+2 GD · 0d rest
NSH
3-2-5
-4 GD · 1d rest
1.024
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.985
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: L. Thompson (+5.2 GSAx in 8 GP, 90.3% SV) vs J. Saros (+0.1 GSAx in 9 GP, 90.6% SV).
- L. Thompson has the GSAx edge — 5.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WSH
vs PHI · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
back-to-back.920 last start60:00 played
Backup Charlie Lindgren · +0.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin11:59
- R. Leonard14:16
- D. Strome15:48
- A. Protas16:54
- B. Jenner17:01
- J. Kyrou15:34
- J. Sourdif15:04
- T. Wilson16:44
- I. Protas11:26
- A. Beauvillier11:27
- P. Dubois13:00
- A. Tuch18:41
Defence · 6
- M. Roy20:37
- J. Chychrun22:08
- T. Liljegren17:29
- J. St. Ivany14:44
- M. Fehérváry22:39
- C. Hutson18:21
NSH
vs NYI · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Saros
1 day rest.889 last start65:00 played
Backup Justus Annunen · -1.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Forsberg22:47
- A. Kerfoot16:30
- J. Drury20:05
- N. Hoglander06:14
- M. Bourque17:12
- M. Wood10:39
- R. Colton13:24
- J. Marchessault17:27
- A. Edstrom16:32
- R. O'Reilly24:10
- S. Stamkos20:42
Defence · 7
- A. Wilsby22:40
- J. Struble07:45
- N. Hague12:13
- N. Perbix18:44
- D. Hunt14:45
- R. Josi26:07
- B. Skjei19:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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