WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · BOS at STL
Bruins at Blues: a true toss-up
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Blues get the narrow nod, and the model's projected score, Bruins 3.0 to Blues 3.3, says this one could tip either way.
The model gives the Blues a 55% chance to win. The Bruins hold the other 45%, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
The Bruins arrive as the hotter team by points pace, going 7-2-1 over their last 10. That heat may not last. PDO adds a team's shooting percentage to its save percentage, and it tends to drift back toward normal over time. The Bruins are running hot on it, so expect some regression, while the Blues are running cold and are due for positive regression.
Shot attempts and expected goals, which weigh each chance by how likely it was to go in, both favor the Blues at even strength.
| Metric | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 46.9% | 49.4% |
| Corsi% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
| PDO | 1.069 | 0.971 |
The sharpest gap is in goal. J. Swayman has posted a save percentage of 92.1% across 10 games, and he has saved 8.7 more goals than the shots he faced predicted. J. Binnington has played 4 games with a save percentage of 84.6%, and he sits 6.3 goals short of what his shots predicted. That leaves J. Swayman 15.0 goals ahead of his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
STL 55%
55%
STL
Model favorite
45%
55%
BOS50STL
STL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 3.0–3.3 STL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →STL
46.9%49.4%
48.5%50.3%
2.992.90
3.392.97
3.772.92
2.153.08
1.0690.971
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.069 vs 0.971) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BOS
7-2-1
+20 GD · 1d rest
STL
4-5-1
-1 GD · 1d rest
1.069
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.069 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 55%–45% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.069 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Swayman (+8.7 GSAx in 10 GP, 92.1% SV) vs J. Binnington (-6.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 84.6% SV).
- J. Swayman has the GSAx edge — 15.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Blues' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BOS
vs CAR · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
1 day rest.933 last start57:47 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +5.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka19:24
- C. Mittelstadt13:27
- P. Zacha20:53
- E. Lindholm19:17
- M. Geekie16:49
- J. Hagens13:31
- M. Kastelic10:23
- M. Poitras08:36
- T. Jeannot08:41
- D. Pastrnak22:39
- M. Khusnutdinov13:46
- F. Minten15:34
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei15:03
- W. Borgen18:12
- H. Lindholm20:33
- F. Brunet12:22
- C. McAvoy26:32
- N. Zadorov18:31
STL
vs MTL · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Binnington
1 day rest.905 last start54:06 played
Backup Joel Hofer · +4.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Toropchenko10:25
- D. Dvorsky11:13
- R. Thomas20:47
- J. Snuggerud16:46
- P. Suter10:23
- J. Berggren15:01
- A. Kaskimaki08:58
- J. Neighbours16:41
- C. McMichael17:01
- D. Holloway18:24
- M. McTavish17:57
- P. Buchnevich21:57
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg26:11
- C. Fowler23:30
- B. Carlo15:19
- A. Jiricek16:21
- C. Parayko21:46
- J. Barron11:14
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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