TACTICAL
The Red Wings own the underlying play
The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.9% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
Preview · CHI at DET
The Red Wings are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Detroit is the model's pick, and the case rests less on the scoreboard than on who has controlled the play. The Red Wings have been doing the territorial work that tends to predict results, while the Blackhawks have gotten less from their play than it deserves.
The model gives Detroit a 60% chance to win. It projects Detroit at 3.5 goals and Chicago at 2.9, a margin the model reads as a lean, not a lock.
Start at even strength. Detroit owns the expected goals share, a measure of which team generates the better scoring chances, and it also controls more shot attempts. Expect the game to tilt toward the Red Wings' end of the ice.
Recent form points the same way. Detroit is 5-2-3 over its last 10 games, the hotter team by points pace. Chicago has a goal differential of minus 9 over that same stretch.
The Blackhawks are the luck story. Their on-ice shooting and save numbers have run cold, and the model expects them to recover. That is the variable to watch, because it is the one part of the model that points toward Chicago.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | CHI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 43.1% | 50.9% |
| Corsi% | 43.9% | 53.4% |
| PDO | 0.978 | 0.990 |
In goal, S. Knight has the longer track record, at +2.1 goals saved above expected over 10 games played, with a save percentage of 89.7%. M. Postava has only 2 games played, a sample too small to carry much weight. His -0.3 goals saved above expected and 88.6% save percentage are the numbers the model has so far.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 60%
60%
DET
Model favorite
40%
60%
CHI50DET
DET by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CHI 2.9–3.5 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →DET
43.1%50.9%
43.9%53.4%
2.723.12
3.603.00
2.172.58
3.672.92
0.9780.990
DET holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.978 vs 0.990) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CHI
4-6-0
-9 GD · 1d rest
DET
5-2-3
-1 GD · 2d rest
0.978
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.990
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.4%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.9% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.9% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Knight (+2.1 GSAx in 10 GP, 89.7% SV) vs M. Postava (-0.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.6% SV).
- The Red Wings are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 over their last 10).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CHI
vs LAK · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.962 last start60:00 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato12:18
- O. Moore11:28
- J. Greenway12:02
- A. Frondell15:32
- R. Greene17:34
- C. Smith13:43
- T. Bertuzzi15:39
- R. Kantserov15:52
- T. Teravainen13:44
- P. Kane14:23
- F. Nazar16:19
- C. Bedard19:21
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel16:01
- K. Korchinski08:55
- I. Cole25:42
- W. Kaiser20:14
- A. Levshunov19:37
- A. Vlasic25:36
DET
vs EDM · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
M. Postava
2 days rest.889 last start63:16 played
Backup John Gibson · -4.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Copp17:48
- L. Raymond21:12
- M. Rasmussen19:01
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:18
- N. Danielson08:11
- V. Arvidsson18:11
- C. Mazur05:10
- J. Compher17:13
- K. Kolesar08:19
- E. Finnie20:34
- D. Larkin23:16
- A. DeBrincat19:28
Defence · 6
- B. Chiarot22:33
- A. Englund13:26
- A. Johansson10:53
- M. Seider30:07
- W. Wallinder17:51
- J. Faulk22:18
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going