TACTICALCAR
The model's clear lean
The Hurricanes project at 64% win probability.
Preview · CBJ at CAR
The Hurricanes should handle the Blue Jackets on the underlying numbers
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Carolina should beat Columbus, and the underlying numbers make that case more clearly than the standings do. The model projects a score of Columbus 2.8, Carolina 3.7. That gives the Hurricanes a 64% win probability.
Carolina owns the underlying play. It holds the edge in expected goals at five-on-five and leads in shot attempts, so expect Carolina to spend more time in Columbus's end.
Form Check
Carolina is also the hotter team on points pace, going 8-1-1 over its last 10. Columbus is underwater, with a -7 goal differential over the same span.
Five-on-Five Numbers
The table sets the five-on-five numbers for both teams side by side.
| Metric | CBJ | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 45.0% | 63.3% |
| Corsi% | 48.0% | 59.6% |
| PDO | 1.007 | 1.000 |
Goaltending Matchup
The goalie matchup pits C. Talbot against P. Kochetkov. C. Talbot has +1.3 goals saved above expected in 6 games. His save percentage is 89.4%. P. Kochetkov has +3.8 goals saved above expected in 8 games, and his save percentage is 91.8%. Both samples are short, so the goalie comparison is a supporting detail rather than the main story.
The standings can hide how a team is really playing. Here, the underlying play does not favor Columbus.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 64%
64%
CAR
Model favorite
36%
64%
CBJ50CAR
CAR by 28 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CBJ 2.8–3.7 CAR; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →CAR
45.0%63.3%
48.0%59.6%
2.664.09
3.252.38
2.503.79
3.302.36
1.0071.000
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.000) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
5-5-0
-7 GD · 1d rest
CAR
8-1-1
+20 GD · 1d rest
1.007
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.000
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 45.0%.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 45.0%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 45.0%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Talbot (+1.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.4% SV) vs P. Kochetkov (+3.8 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.8% SV).
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CBJ
vs PHI · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
C. Talbot
1 day rest.906 last start62:22 played
Backup Jet Greaves · -1.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle19:36
- C. Sillinger16:11
- D. Voronkov07:44
- A. Fantilli20:45
- S. Monahan17:29
- M. Olivier17:37
- V. Nichushkin16:50
- C. Garland13:53
- M. Knies16:18
- K. Johnson14:41
- L. Del Bel Belluz07:56
- R. Lomberg10:48
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen14:51
- D. Mateychuk21:19
- Z. Werenski28:09
- D. Fabbro14:51
- E. Gudbranson17:30
- D. Severson24:38
CAR
vs BOS · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
1 day rest.938 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -5.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho21:18
- L. Stankoven15:03
- S. Jarvis16:29
- N. Ehlers16:16
- W. Carrier14:00
- A. Svechnikov16:47
- N. Deslauriers07:29
- J. Martinook13:53
- E. Robinson12:17
- J. Blake16:47
- M. Jankowski17:16
- J. Kotkaniemi10:18
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere15:24
- J. Chatfield22:32
- J. Välimäki13:43
- K. Miller20:24
- S. Walker18:18
- J. Slavin23:16
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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