TACTICALPIT
Rest edge
The Penguins come in on 4 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Preview · UTA at PIT
Mammoth at Penguins: too close to call
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Mammoth and the Penguins are about as close to a pick'em as you'll find, and the reasons pull in opposite directions. The Mammoth have the stronger underlying game, while Pittsburgh has the clearest advantage going in.
The model projects a finish of UTA 3.3 - 3.2 PIT. That gives the Mammoth a 52% chance to win.
Rest favors the Penguins. They come in on 4 days of rest, and the Mammoth are on 1 day.
The Mammoth own the underlying play. They generate a larger share of expected goals, a stat that weighs shot quality, at five-on-five than Pittsburgh does. Shot attempts, which count every shot aimed at the net, tell the same story. The Mammoth drive that count, so expect territorial tilt, with more of the play in Pittsburgh's end.
| Metric | UTA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 57.6% | 50.2% |
| Corsi% | 56.3% | 51.8% |
| PDO | 0.989 | 0.992 |
Form points the other way. The Mammoth are the hotter team by points pace, going 6-4-0 over their last 10. The Penguins have been underwater, sitting at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
In goal, K. Vejmelka has let in 3.8 more goals than his shots should have allowed over 11 games. His save percentage is 88.1%. A. Silovs has been slightly better, sitting at +0.3 goals saved beyond what his shots called for over 8 games. His save percentage is 89.0%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 52%
52%
UTA
Model favorite
52%
48%
UTA50PIT
UTA by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score UTA 3.3–3.2 PIT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →PIT
57.6%50.2%
56.3%51.8%
3.713.29
2.733.27
3.623.25
3.313.25
0.9890.992
UTA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 0.992) says PIT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
UTA
6-4-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
PIT
3-6-1
-8 GD · 4d rest
0.989
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.992
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.2%.
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.3%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.2%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.2%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: K. Vejmelka (-3.8 GSAx in 11 GP, 88.1% SV) vs A. Silovs (+0.3 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.0% SV).
- The Mammoth are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 over their last 10).
- The Penguins are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Penguins have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs MIN · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
1 day rest.903 last start57:22 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · -3.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz18:27
- C. Keller21:50
- D. Guenther20:46
- V. Trocheck15:25
- J. McBain10:52
- B. Hayton13:13
- L. O'Brien07:09
- K. Yamamoto11:25
- L. Crouse12:47
- A. Lee10:59
- K. Stenlund13:10
- L. Cooley20:39
Defence · 6
- A. Peeke19:35
- D. Simashev14:32
- M. Weegar22:06
- N. DeSimone13:45
- N. Schmidt19:27
- M. Sergachev24:10
PIT
vs NSH · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
4 days rest.923 last start61:29 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. McGroarty12:15
- N. Robertson17:33
- T. Novak19:31
- C. Dewar13:25
- H. Lapierre16:26
- E. Soderblom13:52
- V. Koivunen16:28
- B. Lizotte14:54
- A. Kuzmenko13:04
- R. Rakell19:45
- A. Hayes12:43
- S. Crosby19:38
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak18:08
- I. Solovyov16:12
- S. Stastney18:13
- K. Letang22:33
- E. Karlsson26:12
- D. Carlile20:35
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going