TACTICALTBL
Rest edge
The Lightning come in on 4 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Preview · WPG at TBL
The Lightning are the model's lean over the Jets on the rest edge
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model likes Tampa Bay, and the case rests less on the scoreboard than on how each team has been playing. The Lightning have controlled the play, while Winnipeg has been losing the goal count.
The model projects a Winnipeg 3.0, Tampa Bay 3.4 final. That gives the Lightning a 57% chance to win, which makes it a lean rather than a lock.
The rest edge
Rest is the first key the model points to. Tampa Bay arrives with 4 days off. Winnipeg has 1, and that gap is the edge the model leans on most.
Form
Tampa Bay is the hotter side by points pace, going 7-2-1 over its last 10. Winnipeg has been underwater over the same stretch, at -8 in goal differential.
Five-on-five
At five-on-five, the Lightning own the underlying play. Expected goals, which estimates how many goals a team's chances should produce, favors Tampa Bay. Shot attempts favor them too, so expect the territorial tilt to run toward the Lightning.
| Metric | WPG | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.6% | 53.0% |
| Corsi% | 48.6% | 55.3% |
| PDO | 1.005 | 1.000 |
Goaltending
The goalie matchup is C. Stevenson against D. Hildeby. C. Stevenson has played 4 games. His goals saved above expected sits at -3.0, which means more goals allowed than the shots he faced should have produced. His save percentage is 87.0%.
D. Hildeby has played 3 games and posted an 88.5% save percentage. His goals saved above expected is -0.8, a smaller deficit than Stevenson's.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 57%
57%
TBL
Model favorite
43%
57%
WPG50TBL
TBL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 3.0–3.4 TBL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →TBL
48.6%53.0%
48.6%55.3%
3.043.40
3.223.01
2.333.45
3.003.09
1.0051.000
TBL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.005 vs 1.000) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WPG
3-5-2
-8 GD · 1d rest
TBL
7-2-1
+8 GD · 4d rest
1.005
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.000
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Lightning own the underlying play
The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.3%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.3% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALTBL
D. Hildeby was beatable last time out
D. Hildeby stopped just 82.1% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Stevenson (-3.0 GSAx in 4 GP, 87.0% SV) vs D. Hildeby (-0.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 88.5% SV).
- The Lightning are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Jets are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Lightning have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs FLA · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
C. Stevenson
1 day rest.792 last start60:00 played
Backup Stuart Skinner · +4.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Iafallo10:59
- G. Vilardi14:13
- A. Lowry13:49
- D. Mercer16:07
- I. Rosen11:50
- M. Barron14:33
- C. Koepke11:18
- M. Scheifele20:11
- V. Björck12:04
- K. Connor21:34
- C. Perfetti16:07
- B. Lambert11:20
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo19:22
- N. Pionk21:28
- M. Ferraro21:30
- D. Samberg20:35
- E. Salomonsson20:51
- T. Bauer13:10
TBL
vs UTA · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
D. Hildeby
4 days rest.821 last start61:44 played
Backup Andrei Vasilevskiy · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Point18:34
- J. Viel08:51
- Z. Girgensons09:06
- P. Holmberg14:11
- B. Hagel22:51
- S. Sabourin09:26
- J. Guentzel19:32
- A. Cirelli19:46
- N. Kucherov20:02
- G. Goncalves16:25
- C. Geekie10:09
- I. Mikheyev13:17
Defence · 6
- R. McDonagh18:30
- C. D'Astous20:06
- J. Carlson21:41
- E. Lilleberg15:26
- E. Cernak20:58
- J. Moser20:01
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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