TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
Preview · TOR at SEA
Maple Leafs at Kraken: no daylight between these two
The model's leanWed, Oct 28
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 28, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a TOR 3.2 - 3.3 SEA final, so the Kraken edge it by a hair, and nobody should mistake this for a mismatch.
Rest is the cleanest edge on the card, and it sits with the Kraken. They arrive with 3 days of rest. The Maple Leafs have had 1 day.
The underlying numbers lean the other way. Expected goals measure the quality of chances a team creates, and shot attempts count every shot aimed at the net, blocked or missed included. At five-on-five this season, the Maple Leafs post the better share of both.
Season 5v5 numbers
| Metric | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 48.0% | 44.8% |
| Shot attempts share | 46.4% | 43.1% |
| PDO | 1.005 | 1.043 |
Neither side owns the play, though. Both sit below half in those columns, so expect the Maple Leafs to control more of the territory without dominating it.
The Kraken's PDO is the outlier, and it is running hot. PDO adds a team's shooting and save percentages together, and that sum usually drifts back toward average over a season. Expect some regression.
In net, the sharpest contrast is in the individual numbers. S. Bobrovsky has stopped 2.2 more goals than expected across 9 games, which is what goals saved above expectation measures. J. Daccord, across 6 games, has come in 1.2 goals below that line.
The save percentages tell a smaller version of the same story. S. Bobrovsky's save percentage is 89.7%. J. Daccord's is 88.2%.
The model gives the Kraken a 51% chance, which is as close to a pick'em as this board offers.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
SEA 51%
51%
SEA
Model favorite
49%
51%
TOR50SEA
SEA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score TOR 3.2–3.3 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TOR← edge
edge →SEA
48.0%44.8%
46.4%43.1%
3.152.85
3.423.51
3.713.58
3.213.50
1.0051.043
TOR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.005 vs 1.043) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
TOR
5-3-2
+6 GD · 1d rest
SEA
6-3-1
+0 GD · 3d rest
1.005
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.043
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 46.4%
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 46.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALSEA
Rest edge
The Kraken come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 46.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 46.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+2.2 GSAx in 9 GP, 89.7% SV) vs J. Daccord (-1.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.2% SV).
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kraken have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TOR
vs CGY · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
1 day rest.906 last start58:55 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · +0.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons14:17
- Z. MacEwen10:12
- N. Paul17:35
- B. Duhaime11:11
- A. Matthews19:00
- E. Cowan15:30
- V. Lettieri11:54
- T. Blueger14:27
- K. Marchenko07:05
- W. Nylander19:14
- G. McKenna14:50
- J. Roslovic18:43
Defence · 6
- J. McCabe18:17
- T. Stecher22:04
- D. Mermis13:33
- D. Raddysh23:49
- M. Rielly19:27
- O. Ekman-Larsson19:14
SEA
vs MIN · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
3 days rest.886 last start56:35 played
Backup Philipp Grubauer · +0.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle18:52
- C. Stephenson15:56
- M. Beniers19:43
- M. Samoskevich16:21
- R. Winterton14:24
- B. Catton15:22
- C. Douglas05:17
- S. Wright15:33
- B. Meyers13:02
- B. McMann16:25
- K. Kakko17:18
- F. Gaudreau15:54
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson17:46
- C. Fleury13:41
- J. Mahura16:39
- V. Dunn20:47
- R. Evans20:43
- B. Montour23:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going