WARNINGNJD
C. Hellebuyck on a back-to-back
C. Hellebuyck projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · NJD at COL
Devils at Avalanche: too close to call
The model's leanWed, Oct 28
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 28, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects NJD 3.1 - 3.2 COL, and the arguments for each side pull in opposite directions.
The model gives the Avalanche a 51% chance to win, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. Rest is the clearest tilt. The Avalanche come in on 2 days of rest. The Devils come in on 0.
The bigger swing is in goal. C. Hellebuyck projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, so a backup start or tired legs are the thing to watch. Over one game played, C. Hellebuyck has posted +0.8 goals saved above expected. S. Wedgewood, over 4 games played, sits at -3.4 goals saved above expected, meaning more goals than that workload should have allowed.
The Devils own the underlying play. Across five-on-five, they hold the bigger share of expected goals and shot attempts, which points to a team that controls territory more than it dominates the scoreboard. The table below has the season figures.
The Devils are also the hotter team on points pace, at 7-3-0 over their last 10. The Avalanche are the team running on luck. Their PDO, which adds shooting and save percentage together, is running hot, so expect some regression.
| Metric | NJD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals % | 60.3% | 52.3% |
| Shot attempts % | 59.4% | 51.4% |
| PDO | 0.990 | 1.054 |
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 51%
51%
COL
Model favorite
49%
51%
NJD50COL
COL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 3.1–3.2 COL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →COL
60.3%52.3%
59.4%51.4%
3.673.14
2.412.87
3.424.08
2.753.25
0.9901.054
NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.990 vs 1.054) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NJD
7-3-0
+13 GD · 0d rest
COL
4-5-1
+0 GD · 2d rest
0.990
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.054
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils own the underlying play
The Devils own the underlying play — 60.3% 5v5 xG vs 52.3%.
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 59.4%
The Devils drive Corsi at 59.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 60.3% 5v5 xG vs 52.3%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 59.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils own the underlying play — 60.3% 5v5 xG vs 52.3%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 59.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Hellebuyck (+0.8 GSAx in 1 GP, 94.4% SV) vs S. Wedgewood (-3.4 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.9% SV).
- C. Hellebuyck is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Devils are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 over their last 10).
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Avalanche have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NJD
vs DAL · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
C. Hellebuyck
back-to-back.944 last start60:00 played
Backup Jake Allen · -4.2 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass09:55
- N. Hischier18:08
- C. Brown12:48
- E. Rodrigues17:01
- T. Meier16:18
- A. Mantha16:10
- J. Bratt16:35
- J. Boqvist14:03
- L. Evangelista18:44
- A. Gritsyuk13:18
- J. Hughes19:42
- A. Lombardi12:50
Defence · 6
- B. Dillon15:24
- D. Hamilton19:47
- J. Kovacevic17:44
- B. Pesce18:07
- L. Hughes22:58
- J. Siegenthaler20:28
COL
vs NSH · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
S. Wedgewood
2 days rest.829 last start59:54 played
Backup Mackenzie Blackwood · -1.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov10:53
- B. Nelson16:31
- T. Hughes17:18
- T. Makar05:02
- P. Kelly12:35
- L. O'Connor11:46
- N. MacKinnon19:49
- A. Lehkonen18:32
- J. Schwartz15:13
- M. Necas19:07
- N. Kadri16:40
- G. Landeskog14:05
Defence · 6
- D. Toews20:06
- C. Makar23:16
- B. Kulak22:42
- J. Manson13:45
- S. Malinski19:44
- B. Burns12:48
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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