WARNINGCGY
Dustin Wolf has leaked goals all season
Dustin Wolf: -8.0 GSAx over 5 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · CGY at EDM
The Oilers are the model's lean over the Flames — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanWed, Oct 28
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 28, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Edmonton is the pick, and the reasons are more interesting than the headline number. Calgary has controlled more shot attempts, but Edmonton has been generating the better chances, and the two teams' luck is running in opposite directions.
The model projects CGY 3.0 - 3.5 EDM. It gives Edmonton a 57% win probability, which is a lean, not a lock.
Calgary's problem starts in goal. Dustin Wolf has let in more goals than his shots should have allowed, 8.0 over 5 games. D. Cooley has been on the other side of that ledger, with 3.9 goals saved above expectation over 6 games. T. Jarry sits at -6.2 over 5 games. That leaves D. Cooley 10.0 goals ahead of his counterpart.
Form favors Edmonton too. Their 7-2-1 record over the last 10 games gives them the stronger points pace. Calgary is minus-8 in goal differential over the same stretch.
Five-on-five is where the model's lean comes from:
| Five-on-five measure | CGY | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 45.7% | 50.5% |
| Shot-attempt share | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| Combined shooting and save percentage | 0.939 | 1.029 |
Edmonton wins the expected goals race, which weights shots by how dangerous they are. Calgary wins the shot-attempt race, which counts every shot. That split is where the regression argument lives. Edmonton's shooting and save luck is running hot, so expect some of it to fade. Calgary's is running cold and due to turn around.
The lean goes to Edmonton. The underlying process favors them, and their goaltending matchup does too. Calgary's bad luck is the reason to watch for an upset.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 57%
58%
EDM
Model favorite
42%
58%
CGY50EDM
EDM by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CGY 3.0–3.5 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →EDM
45.7%50.5%
51.7%47.6%
2.943.02
3.502.95
2.554.25
3.733.50
0.9391.029
EDM holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.939 vs 1.029) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
5-5-0
-8 GD · 1d rest
EDM
7-2-1
+8 GD · 1d rest
0.939
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.029
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Oilers own the underlying play
The Oilers own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
TACTICAL
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7%
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.029 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.029 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.939 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Cooley (+3.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.5% SV) vs T. Jarry (-6.2 GSAx in 5 GP, 86.8% SV).
- D. Cooley has the GSAx edge — 10.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Flames are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.029 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CGY
vs TOR · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
D. Cooley
1 day rest.929 last start59:38 played
Backup Dustin Wolf · -8.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund18:32
- M. Frost16:11
- Y. Sharangovich16:47
- R. Strome13:48
- M. Coronato18:44
- J. Castagna10:20
- A. Klapka11:48
- A. Suniev14:25
- M. Pospisil12:20
- B. Othmann09:22
- J. Farabee24:08
- M. Gridin16:11
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl21:46
- Z. Parekh20:11
- Z. Whitecloud17:47
- Y. Kuznetsov13:57
- J. Middleton16:14
- S. Nemec21:51
EDM
vs DET · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
T. Jarry
1 day rest.893 last start65:00 played
Backup Devon Levi · +0.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic07:14
- Z. Hyman08:25
- M. Joseph10:32
- A. Formenton11:35
- L. Draisaitl25:10
- C. Dach14:38
- K. Kapanen19:02
- O. Michaels12:57
- I. Howard08:43
- V. Podkolzin21:37
- R. Nugent-Hopkins22:22
- C. McDavid26:27
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard31:41
- C. Murphy22:28
- R. Shea25:02
- T. Emberson09:08
- S. Mukhamadullin17:52
- J. Walman13:16
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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