Flyers at Capitals: a true toss-up

The model's projected final is PHI 3.1 - 3.4 WSH. Washington gets the nod, but only just, and this is about as close to a pick'em as the model gets.

Washington's win probability is 54%, which is why the verdict is a toss-up rather than a lean. Rest is the first thing that separates the teams. The Capitals arrive with three days off, while Philadelphia has none. That gap comes from the Flyers' goaltending. D. Vladar projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, so a backup start or tired legs are both live possibilities.

The underlying numbers favor Washington. Expected goals, which weighs the quality of chances rather than goals scored, and shot attempts, which counts every shot try, both tilt toward the Capitals at even strength. The season numbers are below.

A shot-attempt edge usually means a team controls the play and pushes the opponent into its own zone, so expect Washington to dictate the territory. The table's PDO line, the combined shooting and save percentage, points the other way. Washington's results are running hot and Philadelphia's are running cold, and the model expects both to drift back toward normal.

Philadelphia also comes in underwater, at minus seven in goal differential over its last 10 games.

In the crease, D. Vladar has been the weaker option this season. He has allowed more goals than his workload should have, minus 1.6 goals saved above expected across seven games. C. Lindgren sits at plus 0.9 in three games, a small sample, but a positive one.

The model sees a coin flip. The deciding question is whether Philadelphia starts D. Vladar on tired legs or goes to a backup.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model