TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.8%.
Preview · BUF at SJS
Sabres at Sharks: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects BUF 3.4 - 3.2 SJS, a margin thin enough that the result could go either way. Buffalo gets the nod, but only just.
The Sabres' case rests on territory. They hold the larger share of expected goals at five-on-five, the model's best read of who creates the better chances. They also hold the larger share of shot attempts, which count every shot try, including misses and blocks. The season table shows both.
| Metric | BUF | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals % | 49.4% | 41.8% |
| Shot attempts % | 52.3% | 45.0% |
| Shooting plus save | 0.976 | 0.963 |
The model gives Buffalo a 53% chance to win, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. Neither side has been sharp lately. The Sharks are at -8 in goal differential over their last 10 games, and the Sabres are at -7 over the same stretch.
The Sharks are the team due for a bounce. Their shooting-plus-save figure is running cold, and the model expects it to climb back toward normal.
The goalies pull the other way. U. Luukkonen is at minus-4.2 in goals saved above expected over 9 games, with an 86.6% save percentage. A. Nedeljkovic has the goalie edge. He is plus-2.3 in goals saved above expected over 5 games, with a 90.3% save percentage. That gap is 6.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
Territory favors Buffalo and goaltending favors San Jose, which leaves the projection this close.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 53%
53%
BUF
Model favorite
53%
47%
BUF50SJS
BUF by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BUF 3.4–3.2 SJS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →SJS
49.4%41.8%
52.3%45.0%
3.232.78
3.313.88
2.823.00
3.643.50
0.9760.963
BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.976 vs 0.963) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BUF
4-3-3
-7 GD · 2d rest
SJS
4-5-1
-8 GD · 2d rest
0.976
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.963
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.3%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.8%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.8%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: U. Luukkonen (-4.2 GSAx in 9 GP, 86.6% SV) vs A. Nedeljkovic (+2.3 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.3% SV).
- A. Nedeljkovic has the GSAx edge — 6.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sharks are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sabres are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs WSH · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
2 days rest.882 last start63:42 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson18:32
- J. Norris17:06
- J. Zucker13:52
- P. Krebs14:21
- J. Quinn17:24
- B. Malenstyn15:13
- T. Kozak13:17
- R. McLeod17:15
- T. Thompson17:00
- N. Ostlund16:25
- J. Doan12:40
- K. Helenius12:10
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger21:06
- M. Samuelsson25:27
- O. Power30:09
- R. Dahlin27:20
- D. Gilbert08:12
- L. Crevier07:37
SJS
vs BOS · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
2 days rest.853 last start58:38 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · +2.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith20:09
- T. Dellandrea12:30
- B. Goodrow11:30
- M. Marchment17:07
- I. Stenberg17:03
- K. Sherwood14:56
- C. Graf15:43
- Z. Ostapchuk10:51
- M. Celebrini21:38
- T. Toffoli13:56
- M. Misa14:25
- A. Gaudette10:12
Defence · 6
- N. Allan13:57
- S. Dickinson19:59
- M. Kesselring14:58
- D. Orlov19:24
- D. Nurse20:04
- J. Trouba23:32
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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