WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -14.3 GSAx over 8 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · VAN at ANA
The Ducks are the model's lean over the Canucks on the underlying numbers
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Ducks, and the case rests on how these teams have played at even strength rather than on the scoreboard. The Ducks have been the side generating the better chances, and that is what the model is betting on.
The model gives the Ducks a 61% chance to win. Expected goals weights every shot by how likely it was to become a goal, so the team that owns that share is getting the better looks. The season numbers at even strength back up the lean:
| Metric | VAN | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 36.3% | 47.4% |
| Shot attempt share | 40.9% | 47.6% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 1.002 | 1.002 |
Form is less decisive. On points pace, the Ducks are the hotter side, going 4-6-0 over their last 10. They are still underwater over that stretch, at -6. The Canucks are much worse off, at -25.
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season. Over 8 games, he has allowed 14.3 more goals than his shots should have produced.
In goal, L. Meriläinen has allowed about as many goals as his shots predicted over 8 games. His save percentage is 91.2%. L. Dostal has allowed 1.8 more goals than his shots predicted. His save percentage is 88.0%.
The lean is built on process more than results, and that is the part to watch.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
ANA 61%
61%
ANA
Model favorite
39%
61%
VAN50ANA
ANA by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score VAN 2.9–3.6 ANA; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →ANA
36.3%47.4%
40.9%47.6%
2.253.01
3.943.34
2.852.91
4.623.36
1.0021.002
ANA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.002) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VAN
0-9-1
-25 GD · 1d rest
ANA
4-6-0
-6 GD · 2d rest
1.002
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.002
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Ducks own the underlying play
The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.4% 5v5 xG vs 36.3%.
TACTICAL
The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.6%
The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.6% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALANA
The model's clear lean
The Ducks project at 61% win probability.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.4% 5v5 xG vs 36.3%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 47.4% 5v5 xG vs 36.3%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 47.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.2% SV) vs L. Dostal (-1.8 GSAx in 8 GP, 88.0% SV).
- The Ducks are the hotter team by points pace (4-6-0 over their last 10).
- The Ducks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VAN
vs MIN · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.882 last start57:06 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -14.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser18:39
- B. Gallagher11:10
- A. Bains10:08
- D. O'Connor16:28
- M. Rossi16:01
- E. Pettersson19:40
- M. Sasson11:13
- J. DeBrusk14:10
- F. Chytil17:19
- J. Lekkerimäki12:01
- L. Ohgren13:47
- L. Karlsson14:16
Defence · 6
- L. Schenn14:03
- T. Willander20:30
- Z. Buium22:59
- F. Hronek25:39
- E. Pettersson22:35
- G. Brisebois12:35
ANA
vs PHI · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
L. Dostal
2 days rest.875 last start60:00 played
Backup Ville Husso · +1.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo10:53
- N. Nesterenko12:32
- A. Killorn15:02
- A. Greer11:00
- J. Caulfield12:29
- J. Malott10:26
- T. Washe14:26
- B. Sennecke18:29
- C. Gauthier18:37
- M. Granlund21:42
- L. Carlsson20:26
- R. McQueen08:48
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe25:38
- D. Helleson19:02
- T. Mitchell20:06
- N. Warren18:23
- T. Hinds13:54
- T. Luneau17:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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