STRENGTHOTT
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall
Linus Ullmark: +8.0 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
Preview · OTT at VGK
Senators at Golden Knights: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects OTT 3.0 - 3.2 VGK, a final score so close that the forecast reads more like a shrug than a pick. Neither side has a clear claim to this one.
The model gives the Golden Knights a 53% chance to win, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The Senators' best case starts in the net. Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall. Across eight games, he has come in at +8.0 goals saved above expectation, meaning he has stopped more shots than the chances faced should have allowed. His save percentage over those games is 0.945.
Vegas controls the territory. The Golden Knights win the shot-attempt battle (Corsi) by a wide enough margin to expect territorial tilt, and the table below shows where that edge comes from.
The Senators' side of the ledger carries a warning. Their PDO, which adds shooting and save percentages together, is running hot, so some regression should be expected.
The season five-on-five numbers are below. xG% is the share of expected goals each team generates, and Corsi% is the share of shot attempts.
| Metric | OTT | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 54.1% | 55.7% |
| Corsi% | 46.6% | 52.5% |
| PDO | 1.031 | 1.001 |
The starting goalies are the wild card. J. Johansson sits at -0.9 in goals saved above expectation over 1 game. His save percentage is 86.2%. C. Hart is at -1.3 over 8 games, and his save percentage is 88.9%. Both sit below expectation in this sample.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 53%
53%
VGK
Model favorite
47%
53%
OTT50VGK
VGK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 3.0–3.2 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →VGK
54.1%55.7%
46.6%52.5%
3.333.38
2.822.69
3.003.54
2.832.92
1.0311.001
VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.031 vs 1.001) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
6-4-0
+0 GD · 2d rest
VGK
6-3-1
+6 GD · 2d rest
1.031
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.001
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.5%
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.031 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 53%–47% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.031 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Johansson (-0.9 GSAx in 1 GP, 86.2% SV) vs C. Hart (-1.3 GSAx in 8 GP, 88.9% SV).
- The Senators' PDO is 1.031 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs NYR · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Johansson
2 days rest.862 last start59:34 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +8.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto20:27
- T. Stützle20:35
- D. Batherson15:11
- F. Zetterlund16:21
- N. Cousins08:02
- M. Amadio17:13
- D. Cozens16:46
- C. Giroux15:22
- S. Halliday05:39
- W. Foegele13:32
- R. Greig19:24
- A. Burakovsky09:42
Defence · 6
- A. Zub19:49
- J. Spence19:35
- C. Yakemchuk16:09
- N. Matinpalo15:40
- T. Kleven21:08
- J. Sanderson23:51
VGK
vs CBJ · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
C. Hart
2 days rest.900 last start60:59 played
Backup Adin Hill · -3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel21:43
- A. Holtz09:29
- M. Gatcomb11:58
- B. Howden15:24
- T. Connelly16:28
- N. Dowd10:48
- R. Lavoie10:16
- B. Bowman16:36
- T. Hertl12:55
- I. Barbashev15:22
- M. Stone20:21
- W. Karlsson16:48
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb23:27
- R. Andersson19:35
- J. Lauzon18:23
- N. Hanifin19:02
- S. Theodore24:35
- D. Coghlan15:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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