TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 60.9% 5v5 xG vs 57.7%.
Preview · MIN at UTA
Wild at Mammoth: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
These two teams have opposite strengths, and the model still calls it a coin flip.
The Wild have been the better team at five-on-five when it comes to expected goals, the share of chances that should go in. That is where their edge lives. The table below has the full comparison.
The Mammoth take the shot-attempt count, so more of the shooting in this matchup should come from their side. Expect territorial tilt, with Utah pushing play while Minnesota looks for its chances.
Season five-on-five numbers
| Metric | MIN | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goal share | 60.9% | 57.7% |
| Shot attempt share | 53.8% | 56.8% |
| Shooting plus save percentage (PDO) | 1.010 | 0.988 |
In goal, C. Pickard has a goals saved above expected figure of -2.8 over two games, and K. Vejmelka sits at -3.2 across ten. A negative number means more pucks went in than the shots should have allowed. Vejmelka's save percentage is 87.8%. Pickard's 83.3% comes from just two games.
The model puts the Mammoth at 50% win probability, which is the honest answer to a game where each side has a real case. Margins decide this one.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 50%
50%
UTA
Model favorite
50%
50%
MIN50UTA
UTA by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 3.3–3.3 UTA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →UTA
60.9%57.7%
53.8%56.8%
4.273.74
2.742.74
3.153.83
2.313.33
1.0100.988
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.010 vs 0.988) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
6-3-1
+7 GD · 1d rest
UTA
6-4-0
-3 GD · 2d rest
1.010
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.988
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 60.9% 5v5 xG vs 57.7%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 60.9% 5v5 xG vs 57.7%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Pickard (-2.8 GSAx in 2 GP, 83.3% SV) vs K. Vejmelka (-3.2 GSAx in 10 GP, 87.8% SV).
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs VAN · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
C. Pickard
1 day rest.882 last start60:00 played
Backup Jesper Wallstedt · +6.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink13:42
- M. Boldy22:40
- Y. Trenin12:31
- J. Eriksson Ek20:10
- T. Pitlick08:55
- B. Coleman14:22
- D. Yurov12:59
- R. Hartman12:17
- M. McCarron14:49
- M. Shabanov16:04
- N. Sturm12:28
- K. Kaprizov21:53
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta18:38
- Z. Bogosian16:59
- J. Brodin19:03
- M. Kiersted12:11
- Q. Hughes26:10
- J. Spurgeon20:09
UTA
vs TBL · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
2 days rest.906 last start61:44 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · -3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz14:58
- C. Keller16:07
- D. Guenther19:15
- V. Trocheck21:02
- J. McBain10:06
- B. Hayton15:54
- D. But06:54
- K. Yamamoto16:31
- L. Crouse12:28
- A. Lee15:53
- K. Stenlund11:18
- L. Cooley19:27
Defence · 6
- A. Peeke20:38
- D. Simashev15:53
- M. Weegar25:20
- N. DeSimone11:18
- N. Schmidt18:50
- M. Sergachev26:01
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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