TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 56.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Preview · MTL at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Canadiens on the underlying numbers
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a MTL 3.0 - 3.4 DAL game with the Stars at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Stars own the underlying play . The Stars own the underlying play — 56.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
- C. DeSmith was beatable last time out. C. DeSmith stopped just 81.5% in his last start.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | MTL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 50.0% | 56.7% |
| Corsi% | 54.8% | 52.1% |
| PDO | 1.004 | 0.997 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Fowler (+9.8 GSAx in 7 GP, 94.2% SV) vs C. DeSmith (-1.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 88.8% SV).
- J. Fowler has the GSAx edge — 11.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 56%
56%
DAL
Model favorite
44%
56%
MTL50DAL
DAL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MTL 3.0–3.4 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MTL← edge
edge →DAL
50.0%56.7%
54.8%52.1%
3.333.16
3.322.42
3.002.67
3.002.00
1.0040.997
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.004 vs 0.997) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MTL
6-3-1
+2 GD · 1d rest
DAL
7-2-1
+13 GD · 1d rest
1.004
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.997
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALDAL
C. DeSmith was beatable last time out
C. DeSmith stopped just 81.5% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Fowler (+9.8 GSAx in 7 GP, 94.2% SV) vs C. DeSmith (-1.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 88.8% SV).
- J. Fowler has the GSAx edge — 11.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MTL
vs STL · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
1 day rest1.000 last start59:38 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -5.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield16:21
- A. Newhook17:47
- J. Anderson17:06
- J. Slafkovský17:29
- C. Kreider12:49
- P. Danault19:21
- F. Xhekaj06:19
- J. Evans15:24
- Z. Bolduc12:19
- K. Dach13:11
- A. Texier11:58
- O. Kapanen15:56
Defence · 6
- M. Matheson23:25
- K. Guhle22:47
- A. Engstrom10:23
- A. Carrier20:08
- L. Hutson22:04
- N. Dobson19:35
DAL
vs NJD · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
C. DeSmith
1 day rest.815 last start60:00 played
Backup Jake Oettinger · +6.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Benn09:46
- C. Blackwell11:21
- J. Robertson18:51
- J. Kiviranta16:59
- R. Hintz13:13
- A. Hyry16:12
- M. Seminoff08:36
- D. Hryckowian07:56
- J. Hryckowian14:56
- W. Johnston20:44
- T. Seguin17:42
- M. Rantanen17:29
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen25:29
- N. Lundkvist18:40
- L. Bichsel19:49
- K. Capobianco10:42
- T. Harley26:40
- T. Myers18:55
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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