TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 59.7% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
Preview · NYI at MIN
The Wild are the model's lean over the Islanders — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Wild are the model's pick, and the case rests on how the game has been played, not on who has scored. Minnesota owns the underlying play, while the Islanders have been getting results that may not last.
The model projects 3.0 goals for the Islanders and 3.7 for the Wild. That gives Minnesota a 61% win probability, the model's clearest lean on this game.
Start with the underlying play. The expected goal share in the table below is the best single measure of it. Expected goals values each shot by how likely it was to go in, so a team with the bigger share is getting the better looks, whatever the scoreboard says. Minnesota also leads on shot attempts, the Corsi% column.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NYI | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 47.5% | 59.7% |
| Corsi% | 51.6% | 53.6% |
| PDO | 1.018 | 1.012 |
The caution sits with the Islanders. PDO adds a team's shooting percentage to its save percentage, and New York's figure is running hot. Expect some of that to regress.
The goaltending comparison is between S. Varlamov and J. Wallstedt. S. Varlamov is at +4.7 goals above what the shots he faced predicted, across 4 games, and his save percentage is 89.1%. J. Wallstedt is at +8.2 across 12 games, with a save percentage of 92.2%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 61%
61%
MIN
Model favorite
39%
61%
NYI50MIN
MIN by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NYI 3.0–3.7 MIN; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →MIN
47.5%59.7%
51.6%53.6%
2.924.13
3.232.79
2.923.14
2.582.21
1.0181.012
MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.012) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYI
5-3-2
-1 GD · 1d rest
MIN
7-2-1
+10 GD · 1d rest
1.018
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.012
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALMIN
The model's clear lean
The Wild project at 61% win probability.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 59.7% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
Regression watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 59.7% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
- Goalie matchup: S. Varlamov (+4.7 GSAx in 4 GP, 89.1% SV) vs J. Wallstedt (+8.2 GSAx in 12 GP, 92.2% SV).
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYI
vs NSH · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
S. Varlamov
1 day rest.870 last start63:10 played
Backup Ilya Sorokin · +3.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- B. Schenn19:15
- A. Duclair16:11
- B. Horvat26:04
- K. Palmieri20:35
- M. Chaffee07:35
- V. Eklund14:00
- J. Pageau16:55
- E. Heineman18:00
- C. Cizikas10:23
- O. Palat16:38
- S. Holmstrom25:02
Defence · 7
- A. Pelech19:13
- M. Kessel05:31
- R. Pulock18:00
- L. Stanley19:54
- S. Mayfield09:06
- M. Schaefer32:16
- T. DeAngelo16:41
MIN
vs UTA · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
1 day rest.963 last start60:00 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink12:34
- M. Boldy22:04
- Y. Trenin12:45
- J. Eriksson Ek21:21
- T. Pitlick06:43
- B. Coleman15:29
- D. Yurov13:31
- R. Hartman12:59
- M. McCarron12:49
- M. Shabanov13:45
- N. Sturm11:15
- K. Kaprizov24:36
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta24:25
- Z. Bogosian14:46
- J. Brodin23:21
- M. Kiersted09:42
- Q. Hughes29:54
- J. Spurgeon10:01
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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