TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
Preview · BUF at ANA
Sabres at Ducks: a true toss-up
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model cannot separate the Sabres and the Ducks, and the case on each side is worth knowing before puck drop.
The model projects BUF 3.3 - 3.3 ANA, a dead tie, and gives the Ducks a 50% win probability. Read that as a coin flip, not a lean.
Underlying play
Buffalo has the better underlying game, owning more of the five-on-five expected goals and shot attempts. Expect the territory to tilt toward the Sabres' end of the ice. The table below has the exact shares for both teams.
Season five-on-five numbers
| Metric | BUF | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 51.0% | 46.7% |
| Corsi% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| PDO | 0.977 | 1.006 |
Luck and form
Buffalo's luck runs the other way. PDO, which adds shooting and save percentages together, has the Sabres running cold, and Backcheck's read is that they are due for positive regression.
Form looks better for Buffalo on the surface. By points pace the Sabres are the hotter team, at 4-3-3 over their last 10. Both sides have been outscored over that stretch, and the Ducks have been outscored more. Anaheim sits at -8 goal differential, and Buffalo is at -6.
Goaltending
C. Ellis has been the steadier goalie this season, at +1.1 goals saved above expectation across four games. L. Dostal is at -3.9 over nine games. That puts Ellis 5.0 goals ahead of his counterpart. Ellis's save percentage is 90.2%, and Dostal's is 87.2%.
The Sabres own the underlying case, and C. Ellis owns the goaltending case. Neither is big enough to settle a game the model rates a coin flip.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
ANA 50%
50%
ANA
Model favorite
50%
50%
BUF50ANA
ANA by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 3.3–3.3 ANA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →ANA
51.0%46.7%
52.4%47.6%
3.322.98
3.193.40
2.753.08
3.333.58
0.9771.006
BUF holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.977 vs 1.006) says ANA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BUF
4-3-3
-6 GD · 1d rest
ANA
3-6-1
-8 GD · 1d rest
0.977
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.006
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.4%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Ellis (+1.1 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.2% SV) vs L. Dostal (-3.9 GSAx in 9 GP, 87.2% SV).
- C. Ellis has the GSAx edge — 5.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sabres are the hotter team by points pace (4-3-3 over their last 10).
- The Ducks are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs SJS · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
C. Ellis
1 day rest1.000 last start59:58 played
Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · -4.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson17:52
- J. Norris16:02
- J. Zucker12:04
- P. Krebs10:04
- J. Quinn19:28
- B. Malenstyn13:19
- T. Kozak11:14
- R. McLeod13:19
- T. Thompson17:10
- N. Ostlund18:55
- J. Doan15:49
- K. Helenius11:44
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger22:01
- M. Samuelsson24:05
- O. Power24:49
- R. Dahlin26:19
- L. Crevier09:11
- Z. Metsa10:37
ANA
vs VAN · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
L. Dostal
1 day rest.818 last start64:49 played
Backup Ville Husso · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo12:53
- N. Nesterenko06:56
- A. Killorn18:18
- A. Greer15:02
- J. Caulfield14:57
- J. Malott10:30
- T. Washe20:36
- B. Sennecke17:57
- C. Gauthier16:28
- M. Granlund22:35
- L. Carlsson16:10
- R. McQueen06:20
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe28:47
- D. Helleson18:49
- T. Mitchell18:28
- N. Warren21:38
- T. Hinds17:38
- T. Luneau20:25
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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