TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.7%.
Preview · OTT at LAK
Senators at Kings: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects OTT 3.1 - 3.0 LAK, and that close score is the whole story: this is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
The model gives the Senators a 52% chance to win, which is a lean, not a call. Ottawa's case rests on the underlying play. At five-on-five, the Senators have carried the larger expected goals share over the season, though the shot-attempt split in the table below runs the other way.
The Senators are also running hot on shooting and save luck. That kind of number tends to come back toward normal, so expect some regression.
The Kings arrive underwater, at -5 goal differential over their last 10 games.
In goal, the matchup is J. Johansson against A. Forsberg. J. Johansson has +1.0 goals saved above expected in 2 games, and his save percentage is 89.3%. A. Forsberg has +1.4 goals saved above expected in 5 games, and his save percentage is 90.2%.
Season Five-on-Five Numbers
| Metric | OTT | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| Corsi% | 46.8% | 47.7% |
| PDO | 1.025 | 0.995 |
Margins will decide this one.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 52%
52%
OTT
Model favorite
52%
48%
OTT50LAK
OTT by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.1–3.0 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →LAK
52.8%47.7%
46.8%47.7%
3.252.79
2.913.07
2.852.55
2.923.36
1.0250.995
OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.025 vs 0.995) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
6-4-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
LAK
3-5-2
-5 GD · 1d rest
1.025
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.995
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.025 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.7%.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.025 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.7%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Johansson (+1.0 GSAx in 2 GP, 89.3% SV) vs A. Forsberg (+1.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.2% SV).
- The Kings are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.025 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs VGK · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
J. Johansson
1 day rest.926 last start58:07 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +7.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto23:06
- T. Stützle22:47
- D. Batherson17:25
- F. Zetterlund15:07
- N. Cousins07:10
- M. Amadio14:01
- D. Cozens17:30
- C. Giroux17:47
- S. Halliday12:56
- W. Foegele11:36
- R. Greig15:52
- A. Burakovsky09:24
Defence · 6
- A. Zub18:37
- J. Spence20:04
- C. Yakemchuk15:07
- N. Matinpalo12:43
- T. Kleven20:25
- J. Sanderson26:38
LAK
vs CHI · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
A. Forsberg
1 day rest.926 last start58:32 played
Backup Darcy Kuemper · -3.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Kempe22:01
- A. Panarin23:54
- T. Moore17:51
- A. Laferriere20:27
- T. Ward13:26
- S. Laughton14:39
- J. Wright07:59
- J. Armia13:14
- A. Lee08:19
- Q. Byfield20:21
- E. Haula15:00
- S. Helenius07:22
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin16:49
- C. Ceci17:10
- J. Edmundson18:40
- M. Anderson17:10
- E. Gustafsson22:25
- B. Clarke22:17
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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