WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -14.5 GSAx over 8 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · VAN at SJS
Canucks at Sharks: too close to call
The model's leanThu, Oct 29
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 29, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Sharks get the narrow nod, but this is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a VAN 3.1 - 3.4 SJS game.
Keys to the Game
The model gives the Sharks a 55% win probability. Their case rests on shot attempts, the count of every shot directed at the net. They drive that count, and the draft expects the territorial pressure to tilt the game their way.
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season, sitting at -14.5 goals saved above expected over 8 games.
The Sharks' PDO, the sum of their shooting and save percentages, is running cold. That makes them due for positive regression.
Form Check
The Sharks have been the hotter side by points pace, going 4-5-1 over their last 10. They are still underwater, with a goal differential of -5 over that stretch. The Canucks are in deeper trouble, at -23 over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
The five-on-five numbers are laid out below.
| Metric | VAN | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 38.3% | 41.0% |
| Corsi% | 41.7% | 45.2% |
| PDO | 1.003 | 0.966 |
Goaltending Matchup
L. Meriläinen has played 9 games with a 90.0% save percentage. His goals saved above expected sits at +0.0.
Y. Askarov has played 8 games with an 89.8% save percentage. He has the goals-saved edge, 5.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
SJS 55%
55%
SJS
Model favorite
45%
55%
VAN50SJS
SJS by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VAN 3.1–3.4 SJS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →SJS
38.3%41.0%
41.7%45.2%
2.382.72
3.833.90
3.072.77
4.643.38
1.0030.966
SJS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.966) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VAN
1-8-1
-23 GD · 1d rest
SJS
4-5-1
-5 GD · 1d rest
1.003
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.966
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sharks drive Corsi at 45.2%
The Sharks drive Corsi at 45.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 55%–45% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Sharks drive Corsi at 45.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sharks drive Corsi at 45.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 90.0% SV) vs Y. Askarov (+5.2 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.8% SV).
- Y. Askarov has the GSAx edge — 5.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sharks are the hotter team by points pace (4-5-1 over their last 10).
- The Sharks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VAN
vs ANA · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.783 last start62:47 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -14.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser21:45
- A. Bains07:13
- D. O'Connor15:30
- M. Rossi17:06
- E. Pettersson24:57
- P. Cotter10:45
- M. Sasson09:42
- J. DeBrusk21:39
- F. Chytil21:26
- J. Lekkerimäki19:55
- L. Ohgren13:43
- L. Karlsson18:02
Defence · 6
- J. Oleksiak20:51
- T. Willander20:57
- Z. Buium20:18
- F. Hronek27:08
- E. Pettersson14:15
- V. Mancini11:05
SJS
vs BUF · Tue, Oct 27
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.975 last start59:21 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +2.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith16:20
- T. Dellandrea13:24
- B. Goodrow10:28
- M. Marchment15:37
- I. Stenberg20:22
- K. Sherwood16:02
- C. Graf15:55
- Z. Ostapchuk10:40
- M. Celebrini24:59
- T. Toffoli12:50
- M. Misa12:17
- A. Gaudette10:21
Defence · 6
- S. Dickinson17:58
- M. Kesselring16:25
- D. Orlov18:23
- D. Nurse23:54
- L. Cagnoni14:05
- J. Trouba24:39
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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