STRENGTHBOS
M. DiPietro stole it
M. DiPietro stopped 30 of 32 (0.938) — +3.56 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
The verdict · stolen
The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.56–3.63 and won anyway.
WSH 2 · BOS 3
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:42 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Bruins beat the Capitals 3-2 in a shootout, and the final score barely tells you what actually happened. Washington carried this game. Boston walked away with the two points anyway, thanks to a goaltender playing out of his mind and a shootout winner from James Hagens.
J. Brodzinski put the Capitals up first, scoring in the opening period off feeds from I. Miroshnichenko and J. Dunne. Boston tied it on the power play in the second when J. Schmaltz scored with an assist from R. Duran. Miroshnichenko struck again on his own in the third to put Washington back ahead, only for C. McAvoy to answer on Boston's own power play late in the same period, assisted by F. Minten and M. Poitras, to force overtime and eventually a shootout. That's where it turned: Hagens's backhander from the doorstep won it for Boston.
Here's the part the scoreboard hides. Washington finished with 60% of expected goals at 5-on-5, and the overall expected-goals split for the game went the Capitals' way 5.56 to 3.63 — a 60-40 split that says Washington was clearly the better team on the night. They out-attempted Boston too, and generated more rush shots. By any measure of who created the better, more dangerous chances, this was Washington's game to win.
It didn't happen because of two goaltenders on opposite ends of the same night. M. DiPietro stopped 30 of 32 shots for Boston and finished at +3.56 goals saved above his expected workload — meaning he stopped nearly four more goals than a league-average goaltender would have on the same shots he faced. That's the number that decided this game. On the other side, Washington's L. Thompson was also sharp, saving 28 of 30 and finishing above expected himself, including a perfect night on high-danger chances. He just didn't get enough help, or enough puck luck, to hold the lead.
Washington's power play didn't help their cause — they went 0-for-7 with the man advantage despite generating real quality with it, a rough finishing night on top of an already unlucky one. Boston's penalty-killed chances, by contrast, turned into real offense: McAvoy's power-play tally was the difference between overtime and a regulation loss.
The read here isn't that Boston stole a game they didn't deserve to be in — DiPietro's game was that good, full stop. But nothing about Tuesday suggests Washington needs to change anything. They controlled play for the majority of five-on-five hockey, generated more expected goals, and ran into a goaltender who simply refused to lose. Washington's real concern isn't process — it's finishing. Boston, meanwhile, got the exact kind of game good goaltending is supposed to buy you: a night where you were outplayed and won anyway.