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← Tue, Mar 24 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at STL

Blues shut out the Capitals, 3-0

FinalTue, Mar 24
WSHWashington Capitals0STLSt. Louis Blues3
The verdict · earned

The Blues earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 0 · STL 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:45 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The 3-0 scoreline obscured a closer game underneath. St. Louis won the expected goals battle 4.48 to 2.21 (67–33), but Washington's 2.21 xG yielded no goals—a 2.21-goal underperformance that explains the gap between their chances and the final. L. Thompson (WSH) overperformed by +2.48 goals, suggesting the Capitals played tighter than a shutout implies.

St. Louis was clinical. They generated superior shot quality (0.071 xG per attempt versus Washington's 0.044) and dominated high-danger chances 6-1. Jordan Kyrou's backhander from the slot at 19:19 of period 3 opened the door. The Blues finished two of 24 rush chances with goals, then closed it. J. Hofer (STL) made all 21 saves and overperformed by +2.21 goals.

Washington created three rebound chances but couldn't finish. Their one high-danger opportunity yielded nothing. L. Thompson played out of his mind (+2.48 above expected), yet it wasn't enough for a team that wasted its best looks.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 24
WSH
0
STL
3

Blues shut out the Capitals, 3-0

Chances 2.2 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blues earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
2.21
STL
4.48
33% of the chances67%

The board read WSH 0, STL 3. The chances read WSH 2.2, STL 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
STL
−1.5
goals above expected
STL4.48 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.21 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals left 2.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 02:39STLJ. Snuggerud0–1
  2. P3 14:52STLO. Stenberg0–2
  3. P3 19:19STLJ. KyrouEN0–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
37 shots
0
Final
81 shots
STL
44 shots
3
WSH attackSTL attack
WSH STL Goal
37
shots · 0 in
44
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHSTL
0 / 1
0.20 xG
High danger
2 / 6
2.03 xG
0 / 12
1.34 xG
Medium
1 / 16
1.87 xG
0 / 37
0.66 xG
Low
0 / 41
0.58 xG

The Blues buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
L. Thompson
+2.5
WSH · 24/26
A
J. Hofer
+2.2
STL · 21/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blues shut out the Capitals, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–4no goals
    2ndshots 5–9
    1. 02:39STLJ. Snuggerud(L. Mailloux, P. Broberg)0–1
    3rdshots 8–14
    1. 14:52STLO. Stenberg(D. Dvorsky, J. Berggren)0–2
    2. 19:19STLJ. Kyrouempty net0–3

    score reads WSH–STL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.48
    STL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.5
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.048
    STL puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    55.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.21Expected goals4.48
    STL 67% of the chance quality
    21Shots on goal27
    1High-danger chances6
    50All attempts (Corsi)63
    Adjusted for score: WSH 47% · STL 53%
    Faceoffs · STL won39%off58%neu33%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WSH0 / 1 · 0.20 xG
    STL2 / 6 · 2.03 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WSH0 / 12 · 1.34 xG
    STL1 / 16 · 1.87 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WSH0 / 37 · 0.66 xG
    STL0 / 41 · 0.58 xG

    WSH went 0-for-12 from medium danger on 1.34 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WSH
    0 G · 2.21 xG · -2.2
    STL
    3 G · 4.48 xG · -1.5
    012345

    WSH finished -2.2 against expected, STL -1.5.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WSH
    WRIST0/18
    SNAP0/9
    SLAP0/3
    TIP IN0/5
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/13
    STL
    WRIST0/18
    SNAP1/7
    SLAP1/7
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND1/7
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/19
    WSH
    STL
    Off the rush
    0 G on 26
    1.68 xG
    2 G on 24
    2.79 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.34 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.63 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-18, STL 0-for-18. STL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    L. Thompson
    WSH · 24/26 · .923
    +2.5
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/62.0+0.0
    Medium1/161.9+0.9
    Low0/410.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Hofer
    STL · 21/21 · 1.000
    +2.2
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/10.2+0.2
    Medium0/121.3+1.3
    Low0/370.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    81 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WSH
    37 shots
    0
    Final
    81 shots
    STL
    44 shots
    3
    WSH attackSTL attack
    WSH STL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, STL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    P. Broberg
    #6 · D · STL
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:27 on ice · +2
    L. Mailloux
    #23 · D · STL
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 20:51 on ice · +2
    J. Snuggerud
    #21 · R · STL
    1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 16:27 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Mar 24
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:42 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model says neither team has a meaningful edge. MoneyPuck projects a 2.5- to 2.6-goal-range game with St. Louis owning 52% win probability.

    The Blues have run hot over their last 10 games, going 7-1-2, but the underlying five-on-five numbers erase any gap in talent. Washington holds a 50.0% expected goals share to St. Louis's 49.0%. The shot-attempt split is nearly identical: Washington at 49.0% Corsi, St. Louis at 48.0%. On paper, they're the same team.

    Washington's luck is the variable. The Capitals are running a 1.018 PDO—well above neutral—while St. Louis sits at 1.000. That gap compounds over time, and regression is the only direction it moves. If it arrives in regulation, it's a Blues win.

    The forwards are the story. Alex Ovechkin is generating 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes with 19 goals and 17 assists. Anthony Beauvillier sits at 0.89 xG/60 with 14 goals and 9 assists. St. Louis counters with Jimmy Snuggerud (0.86 xG/60, 15 goals, 22 assists) and Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG/60, 13 goals, 24 assists).

    Beauvillier shoots at 10.4%; Holloway at 10.8%. Both rates will move. The direction that movement goes matters more than any other variable tonight.

    Defensively, Jimmy Snuggerud is St. Louis's liability; Declan Chisholm is Washington's. Whichever team limits its weak link through regulation wins. Everything else is secondary.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    STL 52%
    52%
    STL
    Model favorite
    48%
    52%
    WSH50STL

    STL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.5–2.6 STL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH← edge
    edge →STL
    50.0%49.0%
    49.0%48.0%
    2.622.34
    2.622.40
    2.182.00
    1.792.12
    1.0181.000

    WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.000) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    WSH
    4-4-2
    -3 GD · 2d rest
    STL
    7-1-2
    +10 GD · 3d rest
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.000
    STL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Blues are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    2 days rest.875 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    STL
    Expected in goal
    J. Binnington
    3 days rest.933 last start
    Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    STL
    Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A
    0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh
    Dylan Holloway13G 24A
    0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page