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← Tue, Mar 24 · the slate
Breakdown · SJS at NSH

Predators pull away from the Sharks

FinalTue, Mar 24
SJSSan Jose Sharks3NSHNashville Predators6
The verdict · stolen

The Predators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.64–2.44 and won anyway.

SJS 3 · NSH 6
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:46 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville rolled past San Jose 6-3 despite ceding 3.64 expected goals to 2.44. The Sharks dominated the underlying metrics—controlling 60% of xG at 5v5—yet lost decisively. This was a heist.

The Predators scored from spots the model abhors. They converted 4 goals from low-danger locations and another 5 off the rush on 22 chances. A. Nedeljkovic's line told the full story: facing 19 shots and 3.64 xG, he allowed 6, finishing at 0.684 SV%—3.56 goals worse than expected. J. Saros did the opposite, stopping 27 of 30 for a 0.900 SV% (+0.64 vs. expected).

The Predators held just 39% of shot attempts (19-30 on goal), yet high-danger chances split even at 3-3. Will Smith's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 01:40) marked the inflection point—where Nashville's opportunism and San Jose's inability to finish diverged.

The Sharks created three rebound opportunities and converted zero. Nashville's rush-play efficiency—5 of 22—is unsustainable. The Predators played the cleaner game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 24
SJS
3
NSH
6

Predators pull away from the Sharks

Chances 3.6 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Sharks deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
SJS
3.64
NSH
2.44
60% of the chances40%

The board read SJS 3, NSH 6. The chances read SJS 3.6, NSH 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NSH
+3.6
goals above expected
NSH2.44 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
SJS3.64 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Predators scored 3.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:34NSHF. Forsberg0–1
  2. P1 06:25SJSA. Gaudette1–1
  3. P1 07:49NSHM. Wood1–2
  4. P1 11:40NSHR. Josi1–3
  5. P1 12:26NSHL. Evangelista1–4
  6. P1 16:36NSHB. Skjei1–5
  7. P2 12:38NSHS. StamkosPP1–6
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SJS
50 shots
3
Final
82 shots
NSH
32 shots
6
SJS attackNSH attack
SJS NSH Goal
50
shots · 3 in
32
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SJSNSH
0 / 3
0.71 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.82 xG
2 / 19
2.22 xG
Medium
2 / 8
1.02 xG
1 / 44
0.71 xG
Low
4 / 32
0.60 xG

The Sharks went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
J. Saros
+0.6
NSH · 27/30
F
A. Nedeljkovic
−3.6
SJS · 13/19
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Predators pull away from the Sharks

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–9
  1. 02:34NSHF. Forsberg(F. Svechkov, J. Marchessault)0–1
  2. 06:25SJSA. Gaudette(S. Mukhamadullin, M. Ferraro)1–1
  3. 07:49NSHM. Wood(J. Marchessault)1–2
  4. 11:40NSHR. Josi(F. Forsberg)1–3
  5. 12:26NSHL. Evangelista(R. O'Reilly, B. Skjei)1–4
  6. 16:36NSHB. Skjei(R. O'Reilly)1–5
2ndshots 15–6
  1. 12:38NSHS. Stamkospower play(F. Forsberg, J. Marchessault)1–6
  2. 17:26SJSW. Smithpower play2–6
3rdshots 10–4
  1. 01:40SJSW. Smith(I. Chernyshov, V. Desharnais)3–6

score reads SJS–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.44
NSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+3.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.094
NSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
39.4%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.64Expected goals2.44
SJS 60% of the chance quality
30Shots on goal19
3High-danger chances3
66All attempts (Corsi)43
Adjusted for score: SJS 67% · NSH 33%
Faceoffs · NSH won41%off52%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
SJS0 / 3 · 0.71 xG
NSH0 / 3 · 0.82 xG
Medium dangermid-range
SJS2 / 19 · 2.22 xG
NSH2 / 8 · 1.02 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
SJS1 / 44 · 0.71 xG
NSH4 / 32 · 0.60 xG

NSH went 4-for-32 from low danger on 0.60 expected goals — 3.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
SJS
3 G · 3.64 xG · -0.6
NSH
6 G · 2.44 xG · +3.6
01234567

SJS finished -0.6 against expected, NSH +3.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
SJS
WRIST1/27
SLAP0/7
SNAP0/5
BACKHAND1/6
TIP IN1/3
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/16
NSH
WRIST3/17
SLAP1/4
SNAP0/4
BACKHAND0/1
TIP IN1/3
DEFLECTED1/1
BAT0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/11
SJS
NSH
Off the rush
1 G on 27
2.27 xG
5 G on 22
2.09 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.68 xG
0 G on 1
0.21 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 1-for-27, NSH 3-for-17. NSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Nedeljkovic
SJS · 13/19 · .684
-3.6
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.8+0.8
Medium2/81.0-1.0
Low4/320.6-3.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros
NSH · 27/30 · .900
+0.6
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.7+0.7
Medium2/192.2+0.2
Low1/440.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
SJS
50 shots
3
Final
82 shots
NSH
32 shots
6
SJS attackNSH attack
SJS NSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — SJS left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
F. Forsberg
#9 · L · NSH
1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 15:08 on ice · +2
J. Marchessault
#81 · R · NSH
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 14:44 on ice · +3
B. Skjei
#76 · D · NSH
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:52 on ice · +4
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Mar 24
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:45 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Nashville at 53% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find—no daylight between the teams.

Nashville has momentum, going 6-3-1 over their last 10 games. San Jose has stumbled, recording a minus-12 goal differential in the same span. Yet the underlying metrics tell a tighter story: San Jose's 48.0% expected goals share nearly matches Nashville's 49.0%, and their Corsi splits are marginal (47.0% versus 50.0%). Neither team dominates in chance creation.

Nashville's edge lives in shot volume. A 50.0% Corsi means the Predators will camp in the Sharks' end, accumulating opportunity despite quality parity. Both PDO values sit neutral (0.998 for San Jose, 0.992 for Nashville), so variance isn't driving the recent results. Territorial advantage in a tight matchup becomes decisive.

Players to Watch

San Jose

  • Pavol Regenda — 1.10 xG/60, 5G 1A, 2 HD goals, 16.1% shooting (inactive)
  • Igor Chernyshov — 0.91 xG/60, 6G 8A, 1 HD goals, 15.0% shooting

Nashville

  • Zachary L'Heureux — 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goals, 16.0% shooting
  • Filip Forsberg — 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting

San Jose's defensive weak point is Chernyshov; Nashville's is Jonathan Marchessault. This shapes as a low-scoring territorial grind decided by goaltending or singular moments of sharp execution.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 53%
53%
NSH
Model favorite
47%
53%
SJS50NSH

NSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 2.5–2.6 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →NSH
48.0%49.0%
47.0%50.0%
2.332.48
2.562.58
1.991.84
2.322.21
0.9980.992

NSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 0.992) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SJS
3-5-2
-12 GD · 3d rest
NSH
6-3-1
+7 GD · 2d rest
0.998
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • The Predators are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 in their last 10).
  • The Sharks are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
SJS
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
3 days rest.923 last start
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH
Expected in goal
J. Saros
2 days rest.931 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS
Pavol Regenda5G 1A
1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh
Igor Chernyshov6G 8A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page