The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Devils won 6-4, but the underlying numbers suggest a worse beatdown: they controlled 68% of expected goals while holding Dallas to just 2.59 xG. The shot-attempt battle told a different story—the Stars managed 52%—revealing a sharp quality gap. New Jersey's shots generated 0.113 expected goals per attempt; Dallas managed 0.040.
That disparity in dangerous areas was extreme. The Devils tallied 12 high-danger chances to Dallas's four, converting five (42%). Dallas found four goals on rush plays but created little elsewhere. The Stars crashed the net effectively, manufacturing four rebound opportunities, but finished on none.
Dougie Hamilton's snap shot from the slot at 19:00 of the third period marked the moment dominance hardened into victory.
Goaltending told the real story. C. DeSmith stopped Dallas decisively: 15 of 16 saves with a 0.938 save percentage that beat his expected outcome by 2.61 goals. He was the only thing standing between Dallas and a rout. J. Oettinger's relief appearance was a disaster: 4 of 8 saves, a 0.500 percentage, and a −2.20 expected-goals deficit in limited action. J. Allen handled the heavier workload for Jersey—23 of 27 saves, 0.852 SV%—but underperformed his xG by 1.41, the one weakness in New Jersey's goaltending.