The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The scoreboard said blowout; the underlying metrics said otherwise. Winnipeg beat Vegas 4-1 on a night when expected goals split 4.28–3.82 in the Jets' favor—a narrow edge that doesn't explain a three-goal margin. The difference was goaltending, and specifically C. Hellebuyck's wall of a performance.
Hellebuyck posted a 0.963 save percentage, converting 26 of 27 shots into stops and outperforming expected goals against by 2.82—staggering. He was perfect on high-danger chances, stopping all seven. A. Hill answered for Vegas with a 0.850 save percentage, beating expected by 1.28, but the gap between them decided the evening.
The Jets held 44% of shot attempts, though Vegas got 27 shots on goal to Winnipeg's 21. High-danger chances leaned their way too—8 for Winnipeg, 7 for Vegas—but only marginally. Vegas generated quality despite the lopsided scoreline, constructing looks at 0.063 expected goals per shot compared to Winnipeg's 0.084. The underlying game was competitive. Execution wasn't.
Vegas stumbled where it mattered most. The Golden Knights went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances, a drought that won't persist, and created five rebound opportunities they failed to convert despite crashing the net effectively. Winnipeg, by contrast, was ruthless off the rush—four goals from 19 rush chances—and found the net when it mattered.
Mark Scheifele's wrist shot from the high slot at 18:42 of the third period set the tone for Winnipeg's dominance down the stretch.
Three Stars:
- #55 M. Scheifele (WPG) — 1G, 2A in 17:43
- #81 K. Connor (WPG) — 1G, 1A in 20:16
- #44 J. Morrissey (WPG) — 1A in 22:16
Final: VGK 1 – WPG 4
