TACTICAL
The Devils own the underlying play
The Devils own the underlying play — 57.1% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
Preview · NJD at WSH
Devils at Capitals: too close to call
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
New Jersey has the better case on the ice, and Washington has the luck running its way. Our model gives the Devils a narrow edge, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you will find.
The Devils have been the better team at five-on-five. Expected goals, a measure of the quality of chances a team creates and allows, puts New Jersey at 57.1%. Washington sits at 45.6%.
Shot attempts, which count every shot tried, including misses and blocks, show the same tilt. The Devils hold 62.7% of them. Washington holds 46.3%. Expect territorial tilt toward New Jersey.
The Capitals' luck is the variable to watch. PDO, which adds together on-ice shooting and save percentage, sits at 1.032 for Washington, a level that is running hot. Expect some regression. The Devils are on the other side of that ledger. Their PDO is 0.970, running cold and due for positive regression.
The goaltending matchup is N. Daws against C. Lindgren. N. Daws has played 3 games. His goals saved above expected sits at -1.7, meaning he has let in more than his shots should have allowed. His save percentage is 85.7%. C. Lindgren has played 2 games and sits at +1.4 in goals saved above expected, meaning he has stopped more than his shots should have allowed. His save percentage is 89.7%.
The lean toward New Jersey is real, but it is thin enough that one bounce could settle it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 1:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 53%
53%
NJD
Model favorite
53%
47%
NJD50WSH
NJD by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 3.5–3.3 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →WSH
57.1%45.6%
62.7%46.3%
3.763.28
2.833.91
3.293.43
3.293.14
0.9701.032
NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.970 vs 1.032) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7
NJD
4-3-0
+0 GD · 1d rest
WSH
4-3-0
+2 GD · 2d rest
0.970
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.032
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.7%
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 57.1% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils own the underlying play — 57.1% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: N. Daws (-1.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 85.7% SV) vs C. Lindgren (+1.4 GSAx in 2 GP, 89.7% SV).
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NJD
vs NYR · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
N. Daws
1 day rest.947 last start59:40 played
Backup Jake Allen · -1.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Noesen10:46
- C. Glass14:47
- N. Hischier14:12
- E. Rodrigues17:23
- T. Meier14:30
- A. Mantha13:38
- J. Bratt15:46
- J. Boqvist13:51
- A. Gritsyuk16:56
- J. Hughes17:34
- D. Mercer15:52
- A. Lombardi12:32
Defence · 6
- D. Hamilton19:39
- J. Kovacevic16:00
- B. Pesce21:30
- L. Hughes24:58
- D. Chisholm16:25
- J. Siegenthaler17:36
WSH
vs MTL · Wed, Oct 14
Expected in goal
C. Lindgren
2 days rest.862 last start60:00 played
Backup Logan Thompson · +4.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin13:14
- R. Leonard14:55
- D. Strome18:56
- A. Protas17:37
- B. Jenner15:08
- J. Kyrou15:15
- J. Sourdif16:05
- T. Wilson17:13
- I. Protas12:22
- I. Miroshnichenko10:01
- A. Beauvillier12:54
- A. Tuch18:49
Defence · 6
- J. Holl13:08
- J. Chychrun23:03
- T. Liljegren16:57
- M. Fehérváry21:54
- C. Hutson17:07
- V. Desharnais20:58
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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