TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.2% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
Preview · CAR at WPG
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Jets on the rest edge
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Carolina is the side the model likes here, and the reasons are plainer than the headline numbers make them sound. The Hurricanes have been the better team at five-on-five, and the schedule gives them a small extra edge.
Start with rest. Carolina has 3 days of rest and Winnipeg has 1, a gap the model counts as an edge.
The underlying play is the bigger story. Carolina has taken 64.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five this season, meaning the model's estimate of how likely each chance was to become a goal. Winnipeg sits at 50.1%.
Shot attempts point the same way. Carolina holds 58.9% of them, against 48.8% for Winnipeg, so expect the territory to tilt toward the Hurricanes.
The goalie matchup pits P. Kochetkov against S. Skinner. P. Kochetkov has saved 1.3 more goals than expected across 4 games, with a save percentage of 91.1%. S. Skinner has saved 1.8 more goals than expected across 5 games, and his save percentage is 90.6%.
Put together, the case rests on Carolina's rest and its control at five-on-five. The goalies are the one part of the picture that does not point the same way on every count.
Data: NHL game data, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 3:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 57%
57%
CAR
Model favorite
57%
43%
CAR50WPG
CAR by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CAR 3.5–3.0 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →WPG
64.2%50.1%
58.9%48.8%
4.133.23
2.303.21
3.883.00
2.383.00
0.9860.999
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.986 vs 0.999) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
CAR
6-1-1
+12 GD · 3d rest
WPG
4-1-2
+0 GD · 1d rest
0.986
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.999
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.9%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.9% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALCAR
Rest edge
The Hurricanes come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.2% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.2% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+1.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.1% SV) vs S. Skinner (+1.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.6% SV).
- The Hurricanes have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs WSH · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
3 days rest.909 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho21:29
- L. Stankoven15:30
- N. Ehlers19:45
- W. Carrier13:37
- A. Svechnikov21:29
- N. Deslauriers09:16
- J. Martinook13:03
- E. Robinson14:49
- J. Blake18:20
- T. Hall04:17
- M. Jankowski15:52
- J. Kotkaniemi11:14
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere18:57
- J. Chatfield18:38
- M. Reilly10:32
- K. Miller22:59
- S. Walker21:26
- J. Slavin20:47
WPG
vs CHI · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
S. Skinner
1 day rest.857 last start61:37 played
Backup Clay Stevenson · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Iafallo15:05
- G. Vilardi16:28
- A. Lowry16:14
- I. Rosen13:23
- M. Barron13:11
- C. Koepke10:58
- M. Scheifele21:32
- V. Björck12:09
- N. Niederreiter12:00
- K. Connor21:03
- C. Perfetti18:57
- B. Lambert07:36
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo19:48
- N. Pionk25:30
- J. St. Ivany13:17
- H. Fleury14:39
- M. Ferraro21:04
- D. Samberg23:59
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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