WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -13.1 GSAx over 6 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · VAN at TBL
The Lightning should handle the Canucks on the underlying numbers
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Tampa Bay should handle Vancouver, and the reason sits beneath the scoreboard. The Lightning have been the better team at creating chances at five-on-five, while the Canucks have been letting in goals they had no business allowing.
The model projects Tampa Bay to score 3.6 goals and Vancouver 2.8. That makes the Lightning a 63% favorite.
The clearest sign is expected goals, the measure of how dangerous a team's chances are. At five-on-five, Tampa Bay owns 54.0% of expected goals. Vancouver sits at 40.6%. Shot attempts tell the same story: the Lightning take 55.5% of them, so expect the Canucks to spend long stretches defending.
Tampa Bay is also the hotter club on points pace, at 5-2-0 through 7 games. Vancouver is at -13 in goal differential over 9 games.
The biggest problem for the Canucks is in net. Kevin Lankinen has let in more goals than his shots should have allowed all season. His goals saved above expected sit at -13.1 over 6 games.
The goalie matchup is L. Meriläinen against A. Vasilevskiy. Meriläinen's raw save percentage is the better number, at 92.5%, but that figure ignores how hard the shots were. Vasilevskiy's 88.6% looks worse, yet he is the one saving more than his shots predict, at +1.4 goals saved above expected over 6 games. Meriläinen sits exactly on expectation, at +0.0.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 4:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 63%
63%
TBL
Model favorite
37%
63%
VAN50TBL
TBL by 26 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score VAN 2.8–3.6 TBL; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →TBL
40.6%54.0%
42.5%55.5%
2.463.40
3.602.90
3.113.00
4.562.71
1.0060.994
TBL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.006 vs 0.994) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–9
VAN
2-6-1
-13 GD · 1d rest
TBL
5-2-0
+2 GD · 1d rest
1.006
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.994
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALTBL
The model's clear lean
The Lightning project at 63% win probability.
TACTICAL
The Lightning own the underlying play
The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.5%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 92.5% SV) vs A. Vasilevskiy (+1.4 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.6% SV).
- The Lightning are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-0 over their 7 games so far).
- The Canucks are underwater at -13 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VAN
vs FLA · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.923 last start62:23 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -13.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser22:18
- B. Gallagher08:34
- D. O'Connor13:06
- M. Rossi13:35
- E. Pettersson21:36
- P. Cotter15:39
- M. Sasson11:40
- J. DeBrusk16:53
- F. Chytil18:30
- J. Lekkerimäki17:42
- L. Ohgren14:15
- L. Karlsson10:38
Defence · 6
- J. Oleksiak15:26
- T. Willander17:10
- Z. Buium19:24
- F. Hronek28:38
- E. Pettersson22:35
- V. Mancini13:30
TBL
vs SEA · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
A. Vasilevskiy
1 day rest.889 last start62:07 played
Backup Dennis Hildeby · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- D. James15:25
- B. Point18:33
- J. Viel10:48
- Z. Girgensons15:11
- P. Holmberg14:04
- B. Hagel23:24
- J. Guentzel19:24
- A. Cirelli18:19
- N. Kucherov22:16
- C. Geekie13:29
- I. Mikheyev14:57
Defence · 7
- M. Crozier12:33
- R. McDonagh16:49
- J. Carlson21:35
- V. Hedman17:13
- E. Lilleberg10:23
- E. Cernak14:55
- J. Moser22:56
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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