The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.36–2.59 and won anyway.
The Capitals beat the Flyers 6-4 despite losing the expected goals battle 2.59–3.36. The Flyers controlled 56% of expected goals at 5v5—Washington's win was a heist.
The margin of this heist lay in execution. The Capitals held just 43% of shot attempts (18–24 on goal) and 44% of expected goals, but generated far more dangerous chances: 3 to 6 in the high-danger category. That quality mattered. Washington outperformed their xG by 3.41 goals, suggesting elite finishing or fortunate bounces. Philadelphia, meanwhile, underperformed by 2.41 goals—D. Vladar's save percentage dipped to 0.706, well below expectation.
L. Thompson, the Capitals' starter, posted a 0.833 save percentage, slightly underperforming xG. Yet the gap narrowed by virtue of Washington's efficiency: they scored 5 goals on 19 rush chances while Philadelphia managed 3 on 26. That 26% conversion rate to Philadelphia's 12% defined the run game.
Washington's power play was the other weapon. Two power-play goals on 11 shots against 0.86 expected goals suggests both volume and conversion. The Capitals controlled momentum through special teams and transition play while getting out-chanced at even strength.
The turning point came early in the third period: Tom Wilson's snap shot from a sharp angle at 18:56, capitalizing on Philadelphia's giveaway and the kind of chance that xG models undervalue.
