The Penguins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Red Wings generated legitimate scoring chances but couldn't convert them—they underperformed their 3.08 expected goals by 2.08, finishing with just one. This mismatch explains why the 5-1 final score looks more lopsided than Detroit's underlying play warranted.
Pittsburgh didn't just get lucky. They dominated 5v5 expected goals 4.83 to 3.08 (61% to 39%), and controlled the shot attempts 32 to 23 (58%). The Penguins generated far more dangerous chances—0.073 expected goals per shot versus Detroit's 0.054. They scored three goals from low-danger spots and four on rush chances off 35 attempts.
Noel Acciari's wrist shot from the doorstep at 12:09 of the third period proved to be the turning point.
S. Skinner carried Pittsburgh's dominance into goal, stopping 22 of 23 shots for a 0.957 save percentage—2.08 goals better than expected. The Red Wings got little help from their own net. J. Gibson finished at 0.786 SV% (11 of 14), performing 0.89 goals worse than expected, while C. Talbot posted 0.889 SV% (16 of 18), 0.72 above expected.
Pittsburgh's efficiency was the decisive factor: more chances, better quality, and execution when it mattered.
