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← Sat, Mar 14 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at WSH

Bruins edge the Capitals in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Mar 14
BOSBoston Bruins3WSHWashington Capitals2
The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

BOS 3 · WSH 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:04 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Boston's 3-2 shootout victory was more dominant in the underlying numbers — they controlled 59% of 5v5 expected goals (4.26 to 2.96) — but L. Thompson kept Washington competitive. The Capitals' goaltender saved 2.26 goals above expected, more than doubling J. Swayman's +0.96.

Boston squandered their advantage. They created seven high-danger chances and scored zero. Washington's two goals included low-danger conversions, the kind Swayman needed to stop. Boston generated five rebound opportunities without cashing in. The Capitals held 45% of shot attempts (28–34), underperforming their 2.96 expected goals by 0.96. Boston underperformed theirs by 1.26 — wasting two full goals of value despite their control.

Fraser Minten's backhander in the shootout decided it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Mar 14
BOS
3
WSH
2

Bruins edge the Capitals in a shootout

Chances 4.3 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
4.26
WSH
2.96
59% of the chances41%

The board read BOS 3, WSH 2. The chances read BOS 4.3, WSH 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
−1.3
goals above expected
BOS4.26 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.96 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 01:15WSHM. Roy0–1
  2. P2 11:57BOSC. McAvoy1–1
  3. P3 03:12WSHR. Sandin1–2
  4. P3 10:09BOSC. McAvoy2–2
  5. SO 00:00BOSF. MintenPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
59 shots
3
Final
108 shots
WSH
49 shots
2
BOS attackWSH attack
BOS WSH Goal
59
shots · 3 in
49
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSWSH
0 / 7
1.70 xG
High danger
0 / 4
1.00 xG
1 / 18
1.88 xG
Medium
0 / 13
1.28 xG
1 / 39
0.68 xG
Low
2 / 37
0.67 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
L. Thompson
+2.3
WSH · 32/34
B+
J. Swayman
+1.0
BOS · 26/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins edge the Capitals in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–9no goals
    2ndshots 11–10
    1. 01:15WSHM. Roy(R. Sandin, H. Lapierre)0–1
    2. 11:57BOSC. McAvoy(D. Pastrnak)1–1
    3rdshots 14–9
    1. 03:12WSHR. Sandin1–2
    2. 10:09BOSC. McAvoy(P. Zacha, V. Arvidsson)2–2
    OTshots 2–0no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00BOSF. Mintenpower play2–2

      score reads BOS–WSH

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      4.26
      BOS chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −1.3
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      0.994
      BOS puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      54.2%
      Shot attempts
      Over half — they had the puck more
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      4.26Expected goals2.96
      BOS 59% of the chance quality
      34Shots on goal28
      7High-danger chances4
      64All attempts (Corsi)54
      Adjusted for score: BOS 55% · WSH 45%
      Faceoffs · WSH won47%off46%neu38%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      BOS0 / 7 · 1.70 xG
      WSH0 / 4 · 1.00 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      BOS1 / 18 · 1.88 xG
      WSH0 / 13 · 1.28 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      BOS1 / 39 · 0.68 xG
      WSH2 / 37 · 0.67 xG

      BOS went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.70 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      BOS
      3 G · 4.26 xG · -1.3
      WSH
      2 G · 2.96 xG · -1.0
      012345

      BOS finished -1.3 against expected, WSH -1.0.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      BOS
      SNAP0/23
      SLAP1/8
      WRIST0/7
      BACKHAND0/4
      TIP IN1/6
      DEFLECTED0/2
      OTHER0/14
      WSH
      SNAP0/26
      SLAP2/8
      WRIST0/1
      BACKHAND0/3
      TIP IN0/1
      DEFLECTED0/1
      OTHER0/14
      BOS
      WSH
      Off the rush
      1 G on 29
      2.71 xG
      1 G on 27
      2.18 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 5
      0.77 xG
      0 G on 1
      0.22 xG

      Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 0-for-23, WSH 0-for-26.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Swayman
      BOS · 26/28 · .929
      +1.0
      saved above expected
      B+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/41.0+1.0
      Medium0/131.3+1.3
      Low2/370.7-1.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      L. Thompson
      WSH · 32/34 · .941
      +2.3
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/71.7+1.7
      Medium1/181.9+0.9
      Low1/390.7-0.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      108 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      BOS
      59 shots
      3
      Final
      108 shots
      WSH
      49 shots
      2
      BOS attackWSH attack
      BOS WSH Goal

      Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      C. McAvoy
      #73 · D · BOS
      2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 27:44 on ice · +2
      R. Sandin
      #38 · D · WSH
      1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 23:19 on ice · +2
      M. Roy
      #3 · D · WSH
      1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 25:26 on ice · +1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Sat, Mar 14
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model projects 2.5–2.8 goals with the Capitals at 54% win probability — about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

      Washington owns the underlying play. Their 50.0% expected goals share against Boston's 47.0% is a real advantage in chance quality, but tied Corsi (49.0% both) means the gap lives entirely in shooting percentage. Both teams are running hot: Boston's 1.023 PDO and Washington's 1.018 PDO are both elevated, so regression should be expected.

      The matchup depends on these players:

      Boston relies on Viktor Arvidsson, who generates 1.04 expected goals per 60 minutes and has 18 goals at a 13.0% shooting rate — inflated by luck. He has 24 assists, making him Washington's defensive target. Tanner Jeannot produces 0.75 xG/60 but has just six goals at 8.3% shooting, so his floor is higher than current output.

      Washington leads with Alex Ovechkin at 19 goals and 0.97 xG per 60 minutes, shooting 13.8% — elite generation at a finish rate that will regress. Anthony Beauvillier adds 14 goals from 0.89 xG/60 at 10.4%, so Washington's scoring depends on both players staying hot.

      Neither team has found high-danger (0%) or rebound goals (0%), meaning their luck tracks their underlying quality. Boston's defensive weak link is Elias Lindholm; Washington's is Declan Chisholm. Whichever team manufactures more shots through their opponent's liability wins the variance game.

      The Capitals are better in underlying play, but not by much. Three points in expected goals doesn't overcome tied possession when both teams are regression candidates. The pick is Washington; the conviction is almost none.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      WSH 54%
      54%
      WSH
      Model favorite
      46%
      54%
      BOS50WSH

      WSH by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.8 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS← edge
      edge →WSH
      47.0%50.0%
      49.0%49.0%
      2.392.62
      2.672.62
      2.222.18
      1.821.79
      1.0231.018

      WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 1.018) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      BOS
      4-3-3
      -4 GD · 2d rest
      WSH
      5-5-0
      -2 GD · 2d rest
      1.023
      BOS PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      1.018
      WSH PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
      Regression watch
      • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
      • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
      • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      BOS
      Expected in goal
      J. Swayman
      2 days rest.857 last start
      Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      WSH
      Expected in goal
      C. Lindgren
      2 days rest.967 last start
      Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS
      Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
      1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
      Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
      0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
      WSH
      Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
      0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
      Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
      0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page