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Breakdown · WSH at VGK

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Final / OTSat, Mar 28
WSHWashington Capitals5VGKVegas Golden Knights4
The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.17–4.36 and won anyway.

WSH 5 · VGK 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:24 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington won 5–4 in a shootout despite losing the xG battle 4.36–2.17, a 67–33 deficit that should have buried them. Vegas controlled 67% of expected goals at 5v5. This was a heist that didn't pay.

The metrics reveal a lopsided game. Vegas out-attempted Washington 29–22 on shots and generated six high-danger chances to zero. Their shot efficiency—0.070 expected goals per attempt—dwarfed Washington's 0.049. Yet on the rush, Washington was lethal: four goals on 25 chances to Vegas's three on 31. One team maximized scarce chances; the other wasted dominance.

A. Hill (Vegas) faltered against his workload, allowing 1.83 goals above expectation on 22 shots. L. Thompson (Washington) stood tall with 0.862 in save percentage despite 29 attempts. Vegas created three rebound opportunities and buried zero. Washington's power play was surgical: two goals on 11 shots.

Washington overperformed their xG by 1.8 goals—elite finishing or fortune will show on tape. Dylan Strome's backhander from the doorstep in the shootout decided it, transforming a night where Vegas deserved a comfortable margin into an upset.

J. Eichel (Vegas) paced the play with 1 goal and 2 assists in 23:23. R. Andersson (Vegas) added 1 goal, 1 assist in 23:20. J. Sourdif (Washington) recorded 1 goal, 1 assist in 17:34.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Mar 28
WSH
5
VGK
4

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 2.2 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
2.17
VGK
4.36
33% of the chances67%

The board read WSH 5, VGK 4. The chances read WSH 2.2, VGK 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+2.8
goals above expected
WSH2.17 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK4.36 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals scored 2.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:06WSHH. Lapierre1–0
  2. P2 01:55WSHJ. SourdifPP2–0
  3. P2 06:49WSHA. Beauvillier3–0
  4. P2 10:38VGKN. DowdSH3–1
  5. P2 11:03VGKR. AnderssonSH3–2
  6. P2 13:18VGKJ. Eichel3–3
  7. P3 00:31VGKM. MarnerPP3–4
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
35 shots
5
Final
86 shots
VGK
51 shots
4
WSH attackVGK attack
WSH VGK Goal
35
shots · 5 in
51
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHVGK
0 / 0
0.00 xG
High danger
1 / 6
1.90 xG
3 / 16
1.76 xG
Medium
2 / 15
1.84 xG
1 / 28
0.41 xG
Low
1 / 41
0.63 xG

High-danger looks: WSH 0 of 0, VGK 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
L. Thompson
+0.4
WSH · 25/29
F
A. Hill
−1.8
VGK · 18/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–12
  1. 06:06WSHH. Lapierre(I. Miroshnichenko, B. Duhaime)1–0
2ndshots 5–10
  1. 01:55WSHJ. Sourdifpower play(C. McMichael, C. Hutson)2–0
  2. 06:49WSHA. Beauvillier(R. Leonard, J. Sourdif)3–0
  3. 10:38VGKN. Dowdshorthanded3–1
  4. 11:03VGKR. Anderssonshorthanded(J. Eichel)3–2
  5. 13:18VGKJ. Eichel(R. Andersson)3–3
3rdshots 7–6
  1. 00:31VGKM. Marnerpower play(P. Dorofeyev, J. Eichel)3–4
  2. 08:54WSHD. Stromepower play(C. Hutson, A. Ovechkin)4–4
OTshots 4–1no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00WSHD. Stromepower play4–4

    score reads WSH–VGK

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.17
    WSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +2.8
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.026
    WSH puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    41.5%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.17Expected goals4.36
    VGK 67% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal29
    0High-danger chances6
    44All attempts (Corsi)62
    Adjusted for score: WSH 40% · VGK 60%
    Faceoffs · VGK won68%off33%neu53%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WSH0 / 0 · 0.00 xG
    VGK1 / 6 · 1.90 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WSH3 / 16 · 1.76 xG
    VGK2 / 15 · 1.84 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WSH1 / 28 · 0.41 xG
    VGK1 / 41 · 0.63 xG

    WSH went 3-for-16 from medium danger on 1.76 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WSH
    5 G · 2.17 xG · +2.8
    VGK
    4 G · 4.36 xG · -0.4
    0123456

    WSH finished +2.8 against expected, VGK -0.4.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WSH
    WRIST1/14
    SNAP2/8
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN1/2
    BACKHAND0/3
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/12
    VGK
    WRIST2/25
    SNAP2/8
    SLAP0/8
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/14
    WSH
    VGK
    Off the rush
    4 G on 25
    1.97 xG
    3 G on 31
    3.25 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 1
    0.13 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.34 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 1-for-14, VGK 2-for-25. WSH scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    L. Thompson
    WSH · 25/29 · .862
    +0.4
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/61.9+0.9
    Medium2/151.8-0.2
    Low1/410.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    A. Hill
    VGK · 18/22 · .818
    -1.8
    saved above expected
    F
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    Medium3/161.8-1.2
    Low1/280.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    86 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WSH
    35 shots
    5
    Final
    86 shots
    VGK
    51 shots
    4
    WSH attackVGK attack
    WSH VGK Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 23:23 on ice · +2
    R. Andersson
    #4 · D · VGK
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 23:20 on ice · +2
    J. Sourdif
    #34 · C · WSH
    1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 17:34 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Mar 28
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:22 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.4–2.7 goal Vegas win and gives the Golden Knights 56% win probability. The edge rests on underlying play and PDO regression: Vegas controls shot quality but runs cold; Washington runs hot and due for a correction.

    The Capitals are the hotter team by recent points pace, going 5-3-2 over their last 10. Vegas, meanwhile, sit underwater at -7 goal differential across the same span—a sign of execution failure more than competence.

    At 5v5, Vegas owns the territorial advantage. The Golden Knights generate 54.0% xG to Washington's 50.0%, and drive Corsi at 52.0% against 49.0%. These metrics forecast that Vegas should control play, dictate pace, and create more dangerous looks. The Capitals will spend time in their own zone.

    The PDO split tells the variance story. Vegas runs at 0.983—cold, due for positive regression. Washington sits at 1.018—hot, due for regression of its own. Vegas's underlying dominance hasn't translated to results; Washington's lower underlying numbers have. When these normalize, the model favors Vegas.

    Both teams face goaltending questions. A. Hill faces a back-to-back, as does L. Thompson. Watch for a backup start or tired starter from either side.

    Vegas's edge flows through star power and shot generation. Alex Ovechkin remains Washington's engine at 19 goals, 17 assists, and 0.97 xG per 60 minutes—elite volume and efficient production paired with two high-danger goals. Anthony Beauvillier runs 10.4% shooting on 0.89 xG/60, suggesting both volume and luck; expect some normalization.

    For Vegas, Brandon Saad projects at 0.91 xG/60 but carries a marking as likely out—check the latest lineup before puck drop. Tomas Hertl (5 goals, 17 assists, 0.88 xG/60) is the reliable secondary option at 4.3% shooting, indicating he's still finding low-danger looks despite the assist total.

    Washington's defensive weak link is Declan Chisholm; Vegas's is Rasmus Andersson. Neither team shows strong high-danger or rebound conversion at the macro level, so the edge is in sustained play dominance, not breakdowns.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 56%
    56%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    44%
    56%
    WSH50VGK

    VGK by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WSH 2.4–2.7 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH← edge
    edge →VGK
    50.0%54.0%
    49.0%52.0%
    2.622.52
    2.622.11
    2.182.12
    1.792.10
    1.0180.983

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.983) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    WSH
    5-3-2
    +2 GD · 1d rest
    VGK
    3-6-1
    -7 GD · 1d rest
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 in their last 10).
    • The Golden Knights are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.900 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Hill
    back-to-back.862 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page