Breakdown · FLA at NYR

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Panthers

FinalSun, Mar 29

FLAFlorida Panthers1 NYRNew York Rangers3

The verdict · coin flip

The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

FLA 1 · NYR 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:25 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers' 3-1 victory looks convincing until you check the underlying numbers. Expected goals split 3.60–3.50 in their favor—a virtual dead heat—yet they won by two. Variance, not dominance, explains the margin.

The Rangers generated quality over volume. They held 45% of shot attempts (22 on goal to the Panthers' 27), but converted at a far higher rate: 0.077 expected goals per shot versus 0.049. When both teams generated six high-danger chances each, the Rangers buried their opportunities while the Panthers didn't.

The Panthers underperformed their xG by 2.50 goals—they squandered chances despite out-shooting the Rangers. Mackie Samoskevich's wrist shot from the slot at 19:19 was Florida's lone breakthrough, but it proved insufficient against the Rangers' lethal rush game. New York scored twice off 22 rush opportunities.

Shesterkin was the difference-maker. He stopped 26 of 27 shots (0.963 SV%), outperforming expected performance by 2.50 goals. Bobrovsky made 19 of 21 saves (0.905 SV%) and saved 1.60 goals above expected, but one dominant outing doesn't overcome a collapse in shot quality.

The Rangers' efficiency rewarded execution. A. Fox delivered one goal and one assist over 23:52, while J. Miller chipped in an assist. M. Samoskevich's goal represented Florida's token response to a night when they simply couldn't finish.

A. Fox (NYR) — 1G, 1A in 23:52
J. Miller (NYR) — 1A in 17:44
M. Samoskevich (FLA) — 1G in 17:43

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 29

FLA

NYR

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Panthers

Chances 3.5 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Rangers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

FLA

3.50

NYR

3.60

49% of the chances51%

The board read FLA 1, NYR 3. The chances read FLA 3.5, NYR 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

−0.6

goals above expected

NYR3.60 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

FLA3.50 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Panthers left 2.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P3 05:10NYRA. Sykora0–1
P3 11:14NYRC. ShearySH0–2
P3 16:06NYRA. FoxEN0–3
P3 19:19FLAM. Samoskevich1–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

FLA

47 shots

Final

82 shots

NYR

35 shots

FLA NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

FLANYR

1 / 6

1.37 xG

High danger

1 / 6

2.39 xG

0 / 10

1.28 xG

Medium

2 / 7

0.72 xG

0 / 55

0.85 xG

Low

0 / 34

0.49 xG

High-danger looks: FLA 1 of 6, NYR 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Shesterkin

+2.5

NYR · 26/27

S. Bobrovsky

+1.6

FLA · 19/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Panthers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 15–5no goals

2ndshots 3–8no goals

3rdshots 9–9

05:10NYRA. Sykora(A. Fox, N. Laba)0–1
11:14NYRC. Shearyshorthanded(J. Miller)0–2
16:06NYRA. Foxempty net(W. Borgen)0–3
19:19FLAM. Samoskevich(J. Boqvist, M. Benning)1–3

score reads FLA–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.60

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.6

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.050

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

39.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.50Expected goals3.60

NYR 51% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal22

6High-danger chances6

71All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: FLA 62% · NYR 38%

Faceoffs · NYR won50%off75%neu71%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

FLA1 / 6 · 1.37 xG

NYR1 / 6 · 2.39 xG

Medium dangermid-range

FLA0 / 10 · 1.28 xG

NYR2 / 7 · 0.72 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

FLA0 / 55 · 0.85 xG

NYR0 / 34 · 0.49 xG

NYR went 1-for-6 from high danger on 2.39 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

FLA

1 G · 3.50 xG · -2.5

NYR

3 G · 3.60 xG · -0.6

01234

FLA finished -2.5 against expected, NYR -0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

FLA

WRIST1/23

SNAP0/10

SLAP0/4

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

POKE0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/24

NYR

WRIST1/17

SNAP1/6

SLAP0/4

TIP IN1/2

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/3

POKE0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/12

FLA

NYR

Off the rush

1 G on 29

2.28 xG

2 G on 22

1.86 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 6

1.02 xG

0 G on 4

0.78 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: FLA went 1-for-23, NYR 1-for-17. NYR scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Bobrovsky

FLA · 19/21 · .905

+1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/62.4+1.4

Medium2/70.7-1.3

Low0/340.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 26/27 · .963

+2.5

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.4+0.4

Medium0/101.3+1.3

Low0/550.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

FLA

47 shots

Final

82 shots

NYR

35 shots

FLA NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 23:52 on ice · +2

J. Miller

#8 · C · NYR

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 17:44 on ice

M. Samoskevich

#11 · R · FLA

1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 17:43 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Mar 29

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:23 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects this at 2.4 to 2.5 goals with New York at 52 percent win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Florida's underlying numbers are solid. The Panthers control Corsi at 52.0%, a meaningful territorial advantage. Their expected goals share sits at 49.0%—only a point behind New York's 48.0%. But Florida is -5 on goals over its last 10, meaning puck luck or finish is working against them. The PDO gap tells the story: Panthers at 0.989, Rangers at 1.009, a gap suggesting regression is coming. New York's 52 percent edge lives entirely on recent variance, not structural superiority.

Sam Bennett is Florida's engine at 0.97 expected goals per 60, with 18 goals, 19 assists, and 6 high-danger chances. His 13.1 percent shooting rate is sustainable and marks him as the matchup Florida must control. Brad Marchand, normally dangerous, has been out 23 days and likely won't play. Florida's offense rides Bennett.

New York counters with Adam Sykora, who owns 0.91 xG/60 but only 3 goals and 1 assist on a 20.0 percent shooting rate—a gap that almost always corrects. Gabe Perreault is more reliable: 0.79 xG/60, 8 goals, 11 assists, 2 high-danger chances, and a 13.1 percent shooting rate matching Bennett's. Perreault represents New York's baseline; Sykora's hot hand its ceiling.

D. Tarasov is on a back-to-back, which could mean a backup start or tired legs—either way, it matters.

The possession arrow points Florida; the possession defense favors New York. Bennett in isolation is more dangerous than any Ranger. Sykora's shooting is borrowed time. The Rangers' 49.0 percent Corsi signals they'll chase, which on the road is vulnerable.

This is what 52 percent looks like: a game decided by execution and hot hands, not scheme. Neither team owns a structural claim to victory. The advantage exists, but it's razor-thin.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 52%

52%

NYR

Model favorite

48%

52%

FLA50NYR

NYR by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 2.4–2.5 NYR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA← edge

edge →NYR

49.0%48.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.482.26

2.562.40

1.981.88

2.211.90

0.9891.009

FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

FLA

5-5-0

-5 GD · 1d rest

NYR

4-5-1

+2 GD · 2d rest

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
D. Tarasov is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Panthers are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

FLA

Expected in goal

D. Tarasov

back-to-back.875 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

D. Garand

2 days rest.964 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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