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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Mon, Mar 9 · the slate
Breakdown · CGY at WSH

Capitals pull away from the Flames

FinalMon, Mar 9
CGYCalgary Flames3WSHWashington Capitals7
The verdict · coin flip

The Capitals won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

CGY 3 · WSH 7
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:22 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals' 7–3 victory masked a more balanced game. Expected goals split 4.35–4.26, nearly dead even — the Capitals overperformed their xG by 2.65 while the Flames underperformed by 1.26.

Washington's advantage came not from opportunity volume but from precision in the high-danger area. They generated seven high-danger chances to Calgary's eight, yet converted 43% of their looks (3 of 7). The Flames generated more and converted none of their six rebound opportunities.

Goaltending widened the margin. L. Thompson (WSH) stopped 1.26 goals above expected, converting defensive mistakes into stops. D. Cooley (CGY) gave up 1.6 more than expected despite well-below-average work. When expected goals are even, goaltending decides.

Ryan Leonard's backhander from the doorstep (19:44, P3) was emblematic: Washington's clinical finishing determined the outcome where the underlying play suggested a toss-up.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 9
CGY
3
WSH
7

Capitals pull away from the Flames

Chances 4.3 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Capitals took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
CGY
4.26
WSH
4.35
50% of the chances51%

The board read CGY 3, WSH 7. The chances read CGY 4.3, WSH 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+2.6
goals above expected
WSH4.35 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY4.26 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals scored 2.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:46WSHH. Lapierre0–1
  2. P1 09:13WSHT. Wilson0–2
  3. P1 17:43WSHC. McMichael0–3
  4. P2 16:08CGYM. Gridin1–3
  5. P2 17:39CGYB. ColemanSH2–3
  6. P2 18:55CGYY. SharangovichSH3–3
  7. P3 10:52WSHC. McMichaelPP3–4
+3 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CGY
45 shots
3
Final
89 shots
WSH
44 shots
7
CGY attackWSH attack
CGY WSH Goal
45
shots · 3 in
44
shots · 7 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CGYWSH
2 / 8
2.56 xG
High danger
3 / 7
1.62 xG
1 / 9
1.09 xG
Medium
3 / 19
2.23 xG
0 / 51
0.61 xG
Low
1 / 31
0.50 xG

The Capitals buried 3 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
L. Thompson
+1.3
WSH · 23/26
F
D. Cooley
−1.6
CGY · 22/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals pull away from the Flames

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–8
  1. 02:46WSHH. Lapierre(M. Fehérváry, D. Chisholm)0–1
  2. 09:13WSHT. Wilson(A. Protas, D. Strome)0–2
  3. 17:43WSHC. McMichael(J. Sourdif, A. Beauvillier)0–3
2ndshots 14–8
  1. 16:08CGYM. Gridin(O. Maatta, R. Strome)1–3
  2. 17:39CGYB. Colemanshorthanded(M. Backlund, Y. Kuznetsov)2–3
  3. 18:55CGYY. Sharangovichshorthanded(J. Farabee)3–3
3rdshots 5–13
  1. 10:52WSHC. McMichaelpower play3–4
  2. 11:15WSHJ. Sourdif3–5
  3. 17:14WSHE. Frankempty net(B. Duhaime, H. Lapierre)3–6
  4. 19:44WSHR. Leonard(J. Sourdif)3–7

score reads CGY–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.35
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.079
WSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.6%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.26Expected goals4.35
WSH 51% of the chance quality
26Shots on goal29
8High-danger chances7
68All attempts (Corsi)57
Adjusted for score: CGY 60% · WSH 40%
Faceoffs · WSH won63%off50%neu59%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CGY2 / 8 · 2.56 xG
WSH3 / 7 · 1.62 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CGY1 / 9 · 1.09 xG
WSH3 / 19 · 2.23 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CGY0 / 51 · 0.61 xG
WSH1 / 31 · 0.50 xG

WSH went 3-for-7 from high danger on 1.62 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CGY
3 G · 4.26 xG · -1.3
WSH
7 G · 4.35 xG · +2.6
012345678

CGY finished -1.3 against expected, WSH +2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CGY
SNAP3/27
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/4
SLAP0/5
WRIST0/3
POKE0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/23
WSH
SNAP6/23
TIP IN0/10
BACKHAND1/6
SLAP0/3
WRIST0/2
POKE0/0
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/13
CGY
WSH
Off the rush
3 G on 28
3.19 xG
5 G on 32
3.39 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 6
0.90 xG
2 G on 4
0.79 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: CGY went 3-for-27, WSH 6-for-23. WSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Cooley
CGY · 22/28 · .786
-1.6
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/71.6-1.4
Medium3/192.2-0.8
Low1/310.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson
WSH · 23/26 · .885
+1.3
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/82.6+0.6
Medium1/91.1+0.1
Low0/510.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CGY
45 shots
3
Final
89 shots
WSH
44 shots
7
CGY attackWSH attack
CGY WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Sourdif
#34 · C · WSH
1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 17:09 on ice · +3
C. McMichael
#24 · L · WSH
2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 14:53 on ice · +1
H. Lapierre
#29 · C · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 11:57 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Mar 9
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:19 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.8 goal range favoring the Capitals, who own a 55% win probability. This is as close to a true pick'em as hockey modeling produces.

Underlying talent slightly favors Washington. The Capitals have generated 50.0% 5v5 expected goals against Calgary's 47.0%, while both teams land at 49.0% Corsi—a toss-up in shot volume. But the Flames are running cold: they've posted a -10 goal differential over their last 10 games, suggesting they're playing poorly despite league-average shot volume.

The Capitals are running hot. Their PDO sits at 1.018, implying they're converting at an unsustainable clip. Calgary's 0.985 PDO tells the opposite story—they're due for positive regression. Both teams' underlying play doesn't fully explain their results, which means the Capitals should tighten while the Flames should rebound.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. D. Wolf is on a back-to-back; expect either a tired starter or a backup appearance, which tilts the advantage away from Washington if Calgary can capitalize early.

Blake Coleman anchors the Flames with 0.89 expected goals per 60 minutes, 16 goals, 12 assists, two high-danger goals, and 11.4% shooting. Matt Coronato generates 0.80 xG/60 but his 6.6% conversion rate—10 goals and 16 assists—looks unsustainable; expect regression downward.

Washington counters with Alex Ovechkin at 0.97 xG/60, 19 goals, 17 assists, two high-danger goals, and 13.8% shooting. Anthony Beauvillier operates at 0.89 xG/60 alongside 14 goals, 9 assists, two high-danger goals, and 10.4% shooting.

The matchup hinges on shot quality and execution. Washington's structure generated the edge in expected goals, but Calgary's recent cold spell and depth will determine whether they climb out before regression resets. If Wolf's back-to-back duty forces a tired start or backup, Calgary gets a window. Otherwise, expect Washington's underlying advantage to prevail.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 55%
55%
WSH
Model favorite
45%
55%
CGY50WSH

WSH by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CGY 2.5–2.8 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →WSH
47.0%50.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.362.62
2.662.62
1.762.18
2.151.79
0.9851.018

WSH holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.985 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
4-5-1
-10 GD · 1d rest
WSH
6-4-0
+1 GD · 2d rest
0.985
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
  • D. Wolf is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Flames are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CGY
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
back-to-back.862 last start
Backup Dustin Wolf · -1.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
2 days rest.931 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CGY
Blake Coleman16G 12A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.4% sh
Matt Coronato10G 16A
0.80 xG/60 · 0 HD · 6.6% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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