The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.66–3.82 and won anyway.
The Rangers won 6-2, but the Flyers controlled the game. Philadelphia held 59% of expected goals (3.82–2.66) and 56% of shot attempts—yet lost by four. This was a variance heist.
The difference came down to goaltending and finishing. I. Shesterkin stopped 32 of 34 shots (0.941 SV%), beating his expected performance by 1.82 goals. D. Vladar surrendered 3.64 more goals than expected, a collapse that reveals how thoroughly the Flyers squandered their dominance. Philadelphia posted 5 high-danger chances to New York's 3, yet scored only 2—a 40% conversion rate masking a deeper inability to finish.
New York's power play engineered the heist. The Rangers scored 3 goals on 0.94 expected goals across 10 shots, an absurd overperformance that accounts for most of their margin. Even-strength finishing was just as lethal: 3 goals on 22 rush chances and 2 from 5 rebounds. M. Zibanejad (2G, 1A in 17:50) and V. Trocheck (3A in 17:18) led the attack, with V. Gavrikov (2A in 19:54) orchestrating from the blue line.
The Flyers generated chances—S. Ersson was flawless in limited work—but couldn't convert when it mattered. Sean Couturier's snap shot from the slot (P3, 15:28) marked the game's only turning point, though it shifted nothing.
The Flyers underperformed their expected goals by 1.82. The Rangers overperformed by 3.34. Where shot quality favored Philadelphia, execution belonged entirely to New York.
