STRENGTHWSH
Dangerous off the rush
5 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG.
Morning report · executive brief
Washington Capitals
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Capitalsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): DAL 6 - 5 WSH — a loss to the Stars.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 5 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG.
Season complete · final ledger
98
Games filed
53
Wins (all)
45
Losses (all)
321
Goals for
293
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · DAL @ WSH · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDALWSH
Offense
▸Basis
DAL Created 3.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.42 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.38 xG).
WSH Created 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.72 xG).
B+
88
B-
81
Defense
▸Basis
DAL Allowed 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.72 xG).
WSH Allowed 3.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.42 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.38 xG).
D+
69
D-
62
Transition
▸Basis
DAL Rush shots 23–29, rush xG 2.38–2.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
WSH Rush shots 29–23, rush xG 2.72–2.38 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
69
B-
81
Special teams
▸Basis
DAL 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.44 PP xG.
WSH 2-for-3 on the power play (67%; league ≈21%) with 0.35 PP xG.
A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
DAL -2.10 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
WSH -2.82 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
F
54
F
47
Discipline
▸Basis
DAL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
WSH Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DAL Finishing +2.82 goals vs xG plus -2.10 GSAx of save luck = +0.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
WSH Finishing +2.10 goals vs xG plus -2.82 GSAx of save luck = -0.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B-
81
D+
69
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGWSH
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.38 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGWSH
L. Thompson couldn't make the stop
L. Thompson allowed 4 on 11 shots (0.636) — 2.41 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
LUCKWSH
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 5 on 2.90 xG — +2.10 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
STRENGTHWSH
Power play cashed in
2-for-3 on the power play (67%) on 0.35 PP xG.
Warning signs
WARNINGWSH
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.38 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGWSH
L. Thompson couldn't make the stop
L. Thompson allowed 4 on 11 shots (0.636) — 2.41 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Positive trends
STRENGTHWSH
Dangerous off the rush
5 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG.
STRENGTHWSH
Power play cashed in
2-for-3 on the power play (67%) on 0.35 PP xG.
STRENGTHWSH
C. Lindgren was perfect on high danger
C. Lindgren stopped all 6 high-danger shots he faced (100% HD save rate).
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB-avg 96▼ DECLINING
DefenseD-avg 63→ FLAT
TransitionB-avg 87▼ DECLINING
Special teamsA+avg 64▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingFavg 77▼ DECLINING
DisciplineB-avg 63▲ IMPROVING
LuckD+avg 71→ FLAT
WSH latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
61/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 13th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
36,639
road miles flown
14
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
13
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
14
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,380 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d14
1d47
2d14
3+d8
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,215 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 12
6 games in 10 days with 3,370 travel miles
Mar 1 – Mar 10
6 games in 13 days with 5,511 travel miles
Jan 22 – Feb 3
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
L. Thompson couldn't make the stopcoachgm