The Capitals won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Washington's 4-1 victory obscured an underlying tightness—expected goals finished 4.29-4.36, a 50-50 split. The actual separator: shot quality. The Capitals generated 0.077 expected goals per shot to Ottawa's 0.057, then actually converted those advantages into goals.
Ottawa had high-danger chances; they couldn't finish them. The Senators went 0 for 5 on chances that should convert regularly. They created six rebound opportunities and couldn't score on any of them. Against a different opponent, that wasted generation might not matter. Against Washington's finish, it was fatal.
The Capitals didn't always generate better chances—they simply weren't picky about which ones they finished. Washington scored two goals from low-danger spots, the kind that make opposing goalies cringe. They were lethal on the rush, finding two goals on 32 chances, the kind of efficiency Ottawa couldn't replicate elsewhere.
L. Thompson's line reads like a masterclass: 34 saves on 35 shots, a 0.971 save percentage that exceeded expectations by 3.36 goals. That gap is nearly the entire margin of victory. L. Ullmark, Ottawa's netminder, wasn't bad—he stopped 21 of 23 shots and saved 2.3 goals above expected. But Washington's goaltending surplus was simply larger.
The Senators' 3.36-goal underperformance on their own expected goals was never going to survive against Washington's execution. Sometimes close underlying play means close scorelines. This wasn't one of those nights.
