The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.50–4.12 and won anyway.
The Stars won 2-1 in a shootout despite Colorado's commanding underlying numbers. The Avalanche finished with 4.12 expected goals to Dallas's 3.50—a 54-46 advantage that should have been enough.
Shot volume tells part of the story. Colorado controlled 65% of shot attempts (34-18 on goal). High-danger chances finished 8-8, completely even. Yet the Avalanche couldn't convert. They went 0-for-8 on those looks—a miss rate that won't repeat.
The gap came down to shot quality and goaltending. Dallas's shots averaged 0.081 expected goals each; Colorado's averaged 0.057. Marginal difference, but at volume, it compounds. More importantly, J. Oettinger saved 3.12 goals above expected on 33 saves. He stopped 100% of Colorado's high-danger chances.
S. Wedgewood wasn't the problem. She posted a 0.944 save percentage, +2.50 above expected. But when Colorado's forwards squeeze off eight premium looks and cash zero, the goalie's heroics only do so much.
The Avalanche weren't careless. They created four rebound opportunities (zero conversions) and controlled the slot. The problem was precision: everything got shot—nothing got scored. Dallas did the inverse, generating just enough danger at just the right moments. Wyatt Johnston's shootout winner felt inevitable in that context.
This game lives in the gap between possession and results. Colorado dominated the crease; Oettinger occupied it like a fortress. The Avalanche underperformed their xG by 3.12 goals. Dallas underperformed theirs by 1.50. Close to that margin was the difference in the game.
