The Flyers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.29–3.41 and won anyway.
The Flyers won 4-1, but the scoreboard lied. Washington controlled the shot quality: 4.29 expected goals to Philadelphia's 3.41, a 56–44 split that should have favored the Capitals. Instead, S. Ersson stole the night.
The Philadelphia goaltender saved 3.29 goals above expected, posting a 0.957 save percentage on 22 stops. More tellingly, he faced six high-danger chances and stopped all six—a clinic in positioning and reflexes when it mattered most.
The Flyers survived by manufacturing efficiency elsewhere. They shot just as often (22 to 23 on goal), but their attempts carried sharper intent: 0.083 expected goals per shot versus Washington's 0.061. Philadelphia also found the rush. On 19 chances in transition, they scored twice, turning speed into goals when the Capitals' defense struggled to recover.
Washington's collapse came at the finish line. They generated six high-danger chances and converted zero. That margin—four goals of unrealized quality—will not repeat. The Capitals also failed to capitalize on seven rebound opportunities, a technical failure of crashing the crease effectively.
In the third period at 18:57, O. Tippett's wrist shot from the point marked the turning point. Over 16:40 of ice time, Tippett contributed one goal and one assist to lead the Three Stars. N. Cates orchestrated from the middle with two assists in 11:28. T. Sanheim anchored the backend with one assist in 24:01.
