The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal won the expected-goals battle and held on to a 3-2 result, but Ottawa's shot volume (60%, 34–23) disguised a deeper quality gap. The Canadiens controlled the play: 56% of 5v5 expected goals (4.80–3.74) and 8 high-danger chances to Ottawa's 3.
Both goaltenders dramatically outperformed their models. J. Fowler stopped 32 of 34 for a 0.941 save percentage, +1.74 above expected on a barrage of quality chances (0.092 xG per shot). L. Ullmark made 20 of 23 saves (0.870 SV%), +1.80 above expected, but faced lower-percentage looks (0.054 xG per shot). The Senators' shot volume masked the reality: they were outchanced and outgunned.
Montreal's shot quality revealed itself in efficiency. The Canadiens converted at a lethal rate off the rush — 2 goals on 26 chances — while Ottawa scored twice on 37 rush attempts, a sign of fewer dangerous breakout plays. Ivan Demidov's wrist shot from the doorstep early in the third gave Montreal breathing room and proved the difference.
Both teams underperformed their xG — Montreal by 1.80, Ottawa by 1.74 — a reminder that variance cuts both ways. Fowler's elite night and Ullmark's overachievement made this closer than the underlying play suggested. Montreal's structure, shot selection, and chance generation won the game; Ottawa's volume couldn't compensate.
