TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
Preview · BUF at WSH
Sabres at Capitals: too close to call
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model can't pick this one, and it says so plainly. Its projection comes out as a tie, which leaves Buffalo and Washington a coin flip. The evidence for each side is real, but it pulls in opposite directions.
Buffalo's case is territory. The Sabres own more of the play at five-on-five, measured by expected goals, which weighs the quality of chances, and by shot attempts, which count every try at the net. The table below has the season numbers.
| Measure (five-on-five, season) | Buffalo | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 50.5% | 45.5% |
| Shot attempt share | 52.6% | 46.6% |
| PDO (combined shooting and save percentage) | 0.970 | 1.026 |
Washington's case runs on luck. The Capitals' PDO is running hot, and it is the clearest regression candidate on the page. Buffalo's figure sits lower, running cold, so the Sabres are due for positive regression.
Buffalo's recent form cuts the other way. The Sabres are underwater over their last 10 games, with a goal differential of -9 across that stretch.
The goalies sharpen the picture. U. Luukkonen has been the weak link, running -4.4 in goals saved above expectation over 8 games. L. Thompson has the edge, at +5.5 over 7 games, and the save percentages point the same way.
Territory and luck lean toward Buffalo, while the goaltending leans toward Washington. That split is why the model lands on a coin flip.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 50%
50%
BUF
Model favorite
50%
50%
BUF50WSH
BUF by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 3.4–3.4 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →WSH
50.5%45.5%
52.6%46.6%
3.253.26
3.193.90
2.803.33
3.603.22
0.9701.026
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.970 vs 1.026) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
BUF
4-4-2
-9 GD · 2d rest
WSH
5-4-0
+1 GD · 3d rest
0.970
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.026
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.6%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: U. Luukkonen (-4.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 86.4% SV) vs L. Thompson (+5.5 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.1% SV).
- L. Thompson has the GSAx edge — 9.8 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sabres are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs PHI · Wed, Oct 21
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
2 days rest.889 last start57:26 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson21:21
- J. Norris13:43
- J. Zucker12:16
- P. Krebs08:49
- J.Kulich13:42
- J. Quinn20:45
- B. Malenstyn10:07
- R. McLeod13:06
- T. Thompson20:06
- N. Ostlund21:40
- J. Doan13:32
- K. Helenius09:07
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger18:11
- M. Samuelsson22:51
- O. Power26:12
- R. Dahlin26:27
- L. Crevier10:30
- Z. Metsa10:43
WSH
vs LAK · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
3 days rest.840 last start58:02 played
Backup Charlie Lindgren · +1.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin16:21
- R. Leonard17:31
- D. Strome18:59
- A. Protas13:09
- B. Jenner17:51
- J. Kyrou14:50
- T. Wilson17:40
- I. Protas13:28
- I. Miroshnichenko10:34
- A. Beauvillier12:59
- J. Brodzinski10:12
- A. Tuch18:59
Defence · 6
- M. Roy17:30
- J. Chychrun26:38
- T. Liljegren12:44
- M. Fehérváry19:39
- C. Hutson21:44
- V. Desharnais15:33
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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