TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
Preview · VGK at CBJ
Golden Knights at Blue Jackets: no daylight between these two
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model gives the Golden Knights a 3.2 to 3.0 edge, and you could flip a coin on this one without embarrassment.
The model's lean comes from play, not results. At five-on-five this season, the Golden Knights hold a 55.8% share of expected goals to the Blue Jackets' 47.1%. Shot attempts point the same way, with the Golden Knights holding 52.3% against 49.3%.
Recent form agrees, though less strongly. The Golden Knights are 7-3-0 over their last 10, the hotter side by points pace. The Blue Jackets are at -9 in goal differential through 8 games.
The Blue Jackets arrive on 3 days of rest to the Golden Knights' 1 day. The model's win probability is 54% for the Golden Knights and 46% for the Blue Jackets, so margins decide this one.
In goal, the matchup is A. Hill against J. Greaves. A. Hill is at -3.1 goals saved above expected across 5 games. J. Greaves is at -1.8 across 6. Both have been below what their shots predicted. A. Hill's save percentage is 88.2%, and J. Greaves' is 88.3%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 54%
54%
VGK
Model favorite
54%
46%
VGK50CBJ
VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.3–3.0 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →CBJ
55.8%47.1%
52.3%49.3%
3.412.85
2.713.21
3.752.38
3.003.63
1.0040.997
VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.004 vs 0.997) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–10
VGK
7-3-0
+8 GD · 1d rest
CBJ
3-5-0
-9 GD · 3d rest
1.004
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.997
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALCBJ
Rest edge
The Blue Jackets come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALCBJ
J. Greaves was beatable last time out
J. Greaves stopped just 73.7% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- Goalie matchup: A. Hill (-3.1 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.2% SV) vs J. Greaves (-1.8 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.3% SV).
- The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 over their last 10).
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -9 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
- The Blue Jackets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs STL · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
A. Hill
1 day rest.806 last start60:00 played
Backup Carter Hart · -1.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel16:46
- A. Holtz14:04
- M. Gatcomb11:56
- B. Howden15:53
- T. Connelly13:53
- N. Dowd11:56
- R. Lavoie11:51
- B. Bowman14:56
- T. Hertl14:20
- I. Barbashev18:52
- M. Stone16:46
- W. Karlsson16:34
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb22:47
- R. Andersson19:48
- J. Lauzon18:15
- N. Hanifin21:09
- S. Theodore22:37
- D. Coghlan15:28
CBJ
vs TOR · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
3 days rest.737 last start32:02 played
J. Greaves started last game and was relieved by C. Talbot (27:57 of it).
Backup Cam Talbot · -1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle23:02
- C. Sillinger13:29
- D. Voronkov10:02
- A. Fantilli21:21
- S. Monahan13:13
- M. Olivier16:13
- V. Nichushkin12:27
- C. Garland12:15
- M. Knies18:36
- K. Johnson17:09
- L. Del Bel Belluz11:54
- R. Lomberg11:10
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen16:05
- D. Mateychuk20:25
- Z. Werenski27:11
- E. Andrae10:22
- E. Gudbranson14:20
- D. Severson21:50
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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