TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.6%.
Preview · CAR at STL
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Blues — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Carolina, and the case rests less on the scoreboard than on who controls the play.
The model gives the Hurricanes a 58% chance to win. Its projected score is 3.4 goals for Carolina and 2.9 for the Blues. The Hurricanes have gone 8-1-1 over their last 10, which makes them the hotter side by points pace.
The underlying numbers back that form. Across the season at five-on-five, Carolina owns 62.8% of expected goals, a measure that weights each shot by how likely it was to become a goal. The Blues sit at 49.6%.
Carolina also takes 59.5% of shot attempts, counting both shots on goal and misses. Expect the territorial tilt that number points to. The Blues are closer to level at 50.1%.
The Blues are also the team due for a correction. Their shooting-plus-save total is 0.985, which marks them as running cold and due for positive regression. Carolina sits at 0.991 on the same measure.
In goal, the matchup pits B. Bussi against J. Hofer. Over 6 games, B. Bussi is at minus 5.6 goals saved above expected, meaning the shots faced have produced more goals than they should have. J. Hofer is at plus 5.0 over 7 games. J. Hofer's save percentage is 92.1%, and that gives the edge in goal, 10.6 goals above B. Bussi's mark this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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The game, as it happens
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Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 58%
58%
CAR
Model favorite
58%
42%
CAR50STL
CAR by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CAR 3.4–2.9 STL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →STL
62.8%49.6%
59.5%50.1%
4.122.82
2.442.87
3.923.50
2.673.10
0.9910.985
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.991 vs 0.985) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CAR
8-1-1
+18 GD · 1d rest
STL
5-4-1
+4 GD · 1d rest
0.991
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.985
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.5%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALCAR
B. Bussi was beatable last time out
B. Bussi stopped just 76.2% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.6%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.6%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: B. Bussi (-5.6 GSAx in 6 GP, 86.5% SV) vs J. Hofer (+5.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 92.1% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 10.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Blues' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs EDM · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
B. Bussi
1 day rest.762 last start65:00 played
Backup Pyotr Kochetkov · +1.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho22:06
- L. Stankoven18:13
- S. Jarvis15:15
- N. Ehlers17:04
- W. Carrier17:27
- A. Svechnikov18:47
- N. Deslauriers09:38
- J. Martinook15:07
- E. Robinson11:22
- J. Blake17:36
- S. Brind'Amour08:10
- J. Kotkaniemi13:34
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere15:25
- J. Chatfield22:07
- J. Välimäki14:17
- K. Miller24:21
- S. Walker23:45
- J. Slavin25:49
STL
vs VGK · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.929 last start60:00 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -7.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky15:05
- R. Thomas19:27
- J. Snuggerud17:34
- P. Suter11:50
- O. Stenberg11:36
- J. Berggren13:49
- A. Kaskimaki12:38
- J. Neighbours16:38
- C. McMichael13:14
- D. Holloway18:40
- M. McTavish14:06
- P. Buchnevich17:14
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg22:51
- C. Fowler20:32
- B. Carlo19:27
- A. Jiricek16:20
- C. Parayko18:36
- J. Barron20:23
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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